Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE LAST
HOUR...AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE CRITERIA TO
BE MET EARLY THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44 IN OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKE REGION TODAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER
ENERGY WILL ALLOW THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. WHILE WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK...DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
INSTABILITY LEVELS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

EVEN WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS
THE EAST.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

COOLER AIR COURTESY OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR
TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE. LATE ON SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO THE STATE AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP
A BIT MORE SOUTH WHERE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FOCUSED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE MODELS AND THIS FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE
DAY AND SOME INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE SEEN. ONLY
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
THREATS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THE
RISK FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW EXCEPT SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. LATER TUESDAY MUCH OF ARKANSAS WILL SEE A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF A MORE WIDE SPREAD SEVERE
THREAT DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ016-025-033-070940-
INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-WHITE AR-
340 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN WHITE...CENTRAL
JACKSON AND INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 337 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR WRENTON...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF BATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWPORT...            DIAZ...               BATESVILLE...
  SALADO...             PLEASANT PLAINS...    OIL TROUGH...
  NEWARK...             MOOREFIELD...         MAGNESS...
  JACKSONPORT...        THIDA...              SULPHUR ROCK...
  ROSIE...              ROOSEVELT...          OLYPHANT...
  MACKS...              HUTCHINSON...         HUFF...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3589 9128 3552 9120 3550 9174 3576 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 250DEG 12KT 3562 9167

/59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
348 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ014>016-024-070935-
CLEBURNE AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-STONE AR-
348 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STONE...SOUTHERN
IZARD...WESTERN INDEPENDENCE AND NORTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 430
AM CDT...

AT 346 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...4 MILES SOUTH OF LUBER...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE SEEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNTAIN VIEW...      MELROSE...            LUBER...
  HERPEL...             GREERS FERRY...       GID...
  CUSHMAN...            CROKER...             CONCORD...
  WOODROW...            TWIN CREEK...         SAINT JAMES...
  PRIM...               PARMA...              MARCELLA...
  LAFFERTY...           IDA...                HIGDEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3600 9173 3558 9174 3554 9225 3596 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 249DEG 13KT 3571 9209

/59

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
437 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ006-007-014>016-071035-
FULTON AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-SHARP AR-STONE AR-
437 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STONE...SHARP...IZARD...
NORTHWESTERN INDEPENDENCE AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...OVER STONE...SHARP...IZARD AND
AREAS TO THE EAST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE 3 MILES EAST OF NEW
LIBERTY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MELBOURNE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA TO PENNY SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SALEM...              MELBOURNE...          ASH FLAT...
  WIDEMAN...            VIOLA...              STURKIE...
  STELLA...             SIDNEY...             SALEM ARPT...
  SADDLER FALLS...      OXFORD...             MYRON...
  MORRISTON...          LUNENBURG...          LONE STAR...
  LAKE THUNDERBIRD...   LAKE OMAHA...         LACROSSE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3633 9126 3624 9128 3624 9132 3622 9134
      3599 9135 3588 9138 3578 9197 3649 9215
      3649 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 251DEG 17KT 3614 9180

/59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
449 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ034-046-047-057-071035-
ARKANSAS AR-MONROE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
449 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODRUFF...EASTERN PRAIRIE...
MONROE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 445 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THREE PRONG
LAKE TO HEIFER LAKE TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF ULM...AND MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STUTTGART...          DE VALLS BLUFF...     CLARENDON...
  BRINKLEY...           AUGUSTA...            ULM...
  ROE...                PEPPERS LANDING...    PATTERSON...
  PALMER...             MCCRORY...            HUNTER...
  HOLLY GROVE...        DOBBS LANDING...      BISCOE...
  ALLENDALE...          ALFREY...             ZENT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 218.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3437 9100 3448 9160 3489 9144 3521 9140
      3519 9139 3522 9138 3532 9140 3532 9104
      3500 9104 3499 9114 3492 9114 3491 9111
      3474 9110 3474 9107 3458 9104 3448 9105
      3447 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 281DEG 7KT 3521 9134 3491 9134
          3454 9146

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
459 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ016-024-025-033-034-071055-
CLEBURNE AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
459 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WOODRUFF...NORTHERN
WHITE...JACKSON...SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 453 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING ACROSS CLEBURNE AND
WHITE COUNTIES AND AREAS EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEST PANGBURN...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEBER
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEARCY...             NEWPORT...            HEBER SPRINGS...
  DIAZ...               TUPELO...             TUCKERMAN...
  STEPROCK...           RUSSELL...            PLEASANT PLAINS...
  PANGBURN...           OIL TROUGH...         NEWARK...
  MCFADDEN...           MAGNESS...            JUDSONIA...
  JACKSONPORT...        GREERS FERRY DAM...   GRAVEL HILL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3587 9116 3533 9105 3519 9204 3557 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 254DEG 16KT 3541 9188

/59