Severe Thunderstorm Warning 391, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WERE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT WILL BE THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNDER THE HIGH...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...
AND IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER WITH AT/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A NEW COLD TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT. THIS WILL
KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR
THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  72  94 /  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  96  77  98 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  96  76  98 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  95  76  97 /  50  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  94  77  95 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      74  96  75  97 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  70  94 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        75  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  75  95 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  93  73  94 /  50  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      75  93  74  94 /  50  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1205 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1205 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC ARE NOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...AND
AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ARKANSAS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL BE GREATEST ALONG A LINE FROM JONESBORO...TO NEWPORT...TO
LITTLE ROCK AND CONWAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AS STRONG WIND ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC.

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SAW THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST 2 DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HEAT
INDICES COULD RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY...MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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