Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS WHILE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH FROM MISSOURI. GUSTY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
PBF AND WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WERE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT WILL BE THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNDER THE HIGH...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...
AND IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER WITH AT/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A NEW COLD TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT. THIS WILL
KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR
THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  72  94 /  50  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  96  77  98 /  50  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  96  76  98 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  95  76  97 /  50  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  94  77  95 /  60  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      74  96  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  70  94 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        75  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  75  95 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  74  98 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  93  73  94 /  50  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      75  93  74  94 /  50  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC ARE NOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AND AS
ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME IS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AS STRONG WIND
ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAAC.

WITH THE SOUPY AIR MASS SITTING OVER THE STATE...ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT SAW THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST 2 DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HEAT
INDICES COULD RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY...MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BENTON                  34.57N 92.58W
09/01/2012                   SALINE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TEREES ARE DOWN IN BENTON.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
542 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              35.13N 91.45W
09/01/2012                   WHITE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL TREES ARE DOWN IN GEORGETOWN. ONE TREE FELL ON A
            VEHICLE THAT WAS UNOCCUPIED.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
554 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYANT                  34.61N 92.49W
09/01/2012                   SALINE             AR   PUBLIC

            ROOF DAMAGE IN BRYANT. SEVERAL LARGE TREES HAVE BEEN
            SNAPPED OR FALLEN.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW BRYANT             34.62N 92.50W
09/01/2012                   SALINE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE IN THE COMMUNITY OF
            SALEM JUST NORTHWEST OF BRYANT.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
09/01/2012                   GARLAND            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE AUSTIN HOTEL HAS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE THAT HAS BLOWN
            INTO THE STREET AND IS BLOCKING TRAFFIC. THE EXTENT OF
            DAMAGE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLAND                 34.54N 91.97W
09/01/2012                   LONOKE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES ARE DOWN IN AND AROUND ENGLAND.

&&

MCLAY