Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Little Rock, AR

February 1, 20125 counties in Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 1, 2012, 2:35 PM CST for 5 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 1, 2012, 2:35 PM CST (20:35 UTC)
Expired: Feb 1, 2012, 3:15 PM CST
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Grant County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 1, 12:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -85 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 838 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 1, 11:26 AM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 1, 11:26 AM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1126 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.AVIATION...
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...WITH IFR CIGS STILL OCCURING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BEFORE SCATTERED
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAINLY SOUTHERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MVFR VSBY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR LOWERED CIGS AS WELL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED NEAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND 50+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUDS. HOW WARM THE TEMPERATURE GETS TODAY WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON ANY PROLONGED BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...ALBEIT BRIEFLY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPLIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STORMS BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE DAY
AS A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-
BASED WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...SO THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...
HOWEVER.

COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...
WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM AS A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SPLIT FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.  THE PD WILL BEGIN WITH A REX BLOCK TYPE CONFIGURATION OVER
NOAM WITH A HUGE UPR RIDGE IN CANADA ABOVE A CUT OFF UPR LOW IN THE
CEN U.S. PLAINS. WHILE DETAILS ARE SKETCHY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT THE CUT OFF UPR LOW WILL SLOWLY PHASE INTO THE NRN STREAM AS
A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY AND COLLECTS IT.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT A LEAST A TEMPORARILY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OF LATE AS SHRTWV RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A HUDSON BAY VORTEX BRIEFLY SETS UP. HOWEVER...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LAST LONG.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE NATURAL STATE IS LIKELY A PD OF NW FLOW
AND A BIT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS DROP A DRY AND
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE. WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST...WILL CONTINUE THE
GOING DRY AND COOLER FCST UTILIZING A BLEND BTW THE WARMER GFS AND
COLDER ECMWF.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...58

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 1, 9:30 AM CST, 5 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
930 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
THREATS IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM THREAT WILL
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...FORECASTS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

63/58

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 1, 2:14 PM CST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
214 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     HAIL             GLENWOOD                34.33N 93.55W
02/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGING FROM DIME SIZED TO QUARTER SIZED ARE
            CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

227

Local storm report, Feb 1, 2:17 PM CST, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             MALVERN                 34.37N 92.82W
02/01/2012  E0.88 INCH       HOT SPRING         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

227

Special weather statement, Feb 1, 2:17 PM CST, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ043-054-055-012100-
GRANT AR-HOT SPRING AR-SALINE AR-
217 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SALINE...NORTHEASTERN
HOT SPRING AND NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 216 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PERLA...OR NEAR MALVERN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERIDAN...           MALVERN...            TULL...
  TRASKWOOD...          ROCKPORT...           PRATTSVILLE...
  POYEN...              PERLA...              HASKELL...
  WOODLAND HILLS...     SHAW...               SARDIS...
  MAGNET COVE...        GLEN ROSE...          GIFFORD...
  FENTER...             BELFAST...            MALVERN MUNI ARPT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 108.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3456 9239 3429 9237 3432 9284 3446 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 264DEG 27KT 3439 9277

44

Local storm report, Feb 1, 2:21 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             5 S PARON               34.69N 92.75W
02/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL BETWEEN THE SIZE OF DIMES AND QUARTERS ARE COVERING
            THE GROUND ON HIGHWAY 9 BETWEEN CROWS AND PARON.

&&

227

Special weather statement, Feb 1, 2:24 PM CST, 11 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Feb 1, 2:28 PM CST, 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ053>055-062-012115-
CLARK AR-DALLAS AR-GRANT AR-HOT SPRING AR-
228 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTHERN DALLAS AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM CST...

AT 224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DECEIPHER LAKE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ARKADELPHIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RICHWOODS...          LEOLA...              CARTHAGE...
  WILLOW...             TULIP...              PRINCETON...
  MANNING...            JOAN...               GUM SPRINGS...
  GRIFFITHTOWN...       DALARK...             BUNN...
  WAVE...               SHAKERTOWN...         ROUND HILL...
  POSEYVILLE...         OPEN BANKS...         JENKINS FERRY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3390 9305 3408 9311 3425 9255 3406 9247
      3399 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 252DEG 33KT 3403 9297

44

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 1, 5:22 AM CST	Dense Fog Advisory	LZK	Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Independence, Jackson and 4 more	4 hr
Feb 1, 11:30 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Scott	30 min
Feb 1, 12:16 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Scott	59 min
Feb 1, 12:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell	49 min
Feb 1, 1:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Polk	44 min
Feb 1, 1:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Garland, Perry, Pulaski, Saline	50 min
Feb 1, 1:47 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pike	43 min
Feb 1, 2:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike	39 min
Feb 1, 2:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Grant	43 min
Feb 1, 2:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Hot Spring	52 min
Feb 1, 2:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lonoke, Pulaski	61 min
Feb 1, 2:28 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Dallas	47 min
Feb 1, 2:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Dallas, Grant, Hot Spring, Jefferson	35 min
Feb 1, 3:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Clark	44 min
Feb 1, 3:13 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleveland, Dallas, Grant, Hot Spring	36 min
Feb 1, 3:20 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lonoke	60 min
Feb 1, 3:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleveland, Grant, Jefferson, Lincoln	43 min
Feb 1, 3:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Jefferson, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie	50 min
Feb 1, 3:31 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Prairie	59 min
Feb 1, 3:32 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Dallas	48 min
Feb 1, 3:39 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe, Prairie	20 min
Feb 1, 3:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Cleveland, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln	42 min
Feb 1, 3:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe, Prairie	33 min
Feb 1, 4:08 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Drew	47 min
Feb 1, 4:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Bradley, Cleveland, Desha, Drew, Lincoln	54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.