Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1126 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.AVIATION...
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...WITH IFR CIGS STILL OCCURING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BEFORE SCATTERED
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAINLY SOUTHERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MVFR VSBY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR LOWERED CIGS AS WELL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED NEAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND 50+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUDS. HOW WARM THE TEMPERATURE GETS TODAY WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON ANY PROLONGED BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.

UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...ALBEIT BRIEFLY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPLIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STORMS BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE DAY
AS A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-
BASED WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...SO THE THREAT
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...
HOWEVER.

COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...
WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM AS A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SPLIT FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.  THE PD WILL BEGIN WITH A REX BLOCK TYPE CONFIGURATION OVER
NOAM WITH A HUGE UPR RIDGE IN CANADA ABOVE A CUT OFF UPR LOW IN THE
CEN U.S. PLAINS. WHILE DETAILS ARE SKETCHY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT THE CUT OFF UPR LOW WILL SLOWLY PHASE INTO THE NRN STREAM AS
A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY AND COLLECTS IT.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT A LEAST A TEMPORARILY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OF LATE AS SHRTWV RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A HUDSON BAY VORTEX BRIEFLY SETS UP. HOWEVER...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LAST LONG.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE NATURAL STATE IS LIKELY A PD OF NW FLOW
AND A BIT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS DROP A DRY AND
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE. WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
THE DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST...WILL CONTINUE THE
GOING DRY AND COOLER FCST UTILIZING A BLEND BTW THE WARMER GFS AND
COLDER ECMWF.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
930 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
THREATS IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM THREAT WILL
WIND DOWN IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...FORECASTS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

63/58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ030-037-011800-
LOGAN AR-SCOTT AR-
1130 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1126 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF COALDALE...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF HARTFORD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            OLIVER...             MORGAN SPRINGS...
  MANSFIELD...          LAKE HINKLE...        ECHO...
  BEAUCHAMP...          WINFIELD...           LUCAS...
  IONE...               HON...                ELM PARK...
  CAUTHRON...           BOLES...              BLACK FORK...
  BATES...              BARBER...             ABBOTT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3496 9441 3496 9429 3497 9424
      3505 9423 3507 9425 3508 9424 3511 9415
      3512 9414 3514 9404 3474 9405 3474 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 261DEG 35KT 3496 9455

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ037-038-011915-
SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
1216 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL AND CENTRAL
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CST...

AT 1212 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WALDRON...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK TOWARD HARVEY AND BLUFFTON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            MUDDY CREEK WMA...    FOURCHE VALLEY...
  CARDIFF...            WING...               WALTREAK...
  UNION HILL...         ROVER...              PARKS...
  ONYX...               OLIO...               NOLA...
  NEEDMORE...           HARVEY...             GRAVELLY...
  CHULA...              CEDAR CREEK...        BRIGGSVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3498 9413 3500 9330 3477 9333 3477 9339
      3474 9339 3475 9374 3474 9375 3477 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 274DEG 36KT 3487 9402

46