Special Weather Statement, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE WESTERN MID
ATLANTIC BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE
TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED INVERTED V STRUCTURE. WEAK
CAP AROUND 925MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR DAY...WITH WET MICROBURTS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE STEEPER THAN WHAT
MODELS FORECAST AND A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RUNS
THROUGH 9 PM FOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DO THINK STORMS WILL FILL IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REACH THE METRO AREAS BY EARLY THE
EVENING. IF CURRENT STORMS EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA MAY STRATIFORM OUT
WHEN IT REACHES THE METRO AREAS WITH DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/STRENGTH.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW...WITH VALUES NEAR
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AND WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND CAUSE AN AREA OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS MAY
BE REACHED EARLY ON MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PUSH THROUGH AFTER
FROPA AND CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FROPA MOVES THROUGH REGION.  BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE EVENING.  MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
FROPA WILL KEEP A TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SC COAST AND AWAY FROM THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE CLOSER TO
THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.  NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AND AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM CONVERGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ACTIVITY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND FROPA.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...AND
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE WITH SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ACTIVITY.  SCA IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
FROPA.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

LISTEMAA/SHEFFIELD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MDZ003-502-WVZ051-222045-
WASHINGTON MD-MORGAN WV-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...MORGAN AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FLINTSTONE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE VALLEY VIEW...JOHNSONS MILL...SPOHRS
CROSSROADS...NEW HOPE AND HIGHLAND RIDGE.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7807 3972 7806 3946 7824 3964 7866
      3973 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 283DEG 23KT 3971 7852

KONARIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ026-027-WVZ055-222100-
SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-ROCKINGHAM VA-
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH...HARDY AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
BRAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MATHIAS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 7859 3863 7881 3885 7909 3897 7902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 297DEG 8KT 3888 7897

KONARIK