Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Baltimore/Washington

022 
WWUS51 KLWX 221819
SVSLWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
219 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAC003-125-221845-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-120622T1845Z/
NELSON VA-ALBEMARLE VA-
219 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR ALBEMARLE AND NELSON COUNTIES...

AT 217 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SHIPMAN...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENT CREEK...AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINGINA...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3764 7885 3781 7879 3777 7853 3775 7853
      3776 7856 3774 7863 3772 7864 3768 7864
      3767 7866 3769 7869 3763 7872 3764 7880
      3761 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 302DEG 10KT 3768 7875

$$

KONARIK

760 
WWUS51 KLWX 221836
SVSLWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAC003-125-221846-
/O.EXP.KLWX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-120622T1845Z/
NELSON VA-ALBEMARLE VA-
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM EDT FOR
ALBEMARLE AND NELSON COUNTIES...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE WARNED
AREA. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3764 7885 3781 7879 3777 7853 3775 7853
      3776 7856 3774 7863 3772 7864 3768 7864
      3767 7866 3769 7869 3763 7872 3764 7880
      3761 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 302DEG 10KT 3765 7870

$$

KONARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NY BACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH IS ALSO
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING. STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MD THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION STARTING TO BREAK OUT
BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM IN THE WEST...AND MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND MOST LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS HAS A VERY NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE. WILL BE
A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR EVENT...WITH PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING ARE STEEPER THAN THE 06Z
FORECASTED LAPSE RATES FROM THE NAM.

UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS. IN
ADDITION...TRIED TO TIME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THE HRRR
SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...TAKING
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/CLEARING SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
50S BY THIS TIME...SO IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL START
TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE. MAY SEE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOP AND
THIS ALONG WITH TERRAIN MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MINIMAL...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS IN MOIST AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF IS FASTER AND SUGGESTS
AND EARLY MONDAY PASSAGE...BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS
WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS IF SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AND THUS
KEPT THE GENERAL DRY FORECAST IN GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ANY
CIGS ARE WELL ABOVE 3 KFT. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ONLY A
RESIDUAL 5-6KFT DECK WILL BE LEFTOVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT HELP TO DEVELOP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING THIS AFTN AND ENDING BY LATE EVE. GUSTY
WINDS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS
IS EXPECTED...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ANY TSTMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TODAY.

NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AOB 15 KT FOR
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFF THE COAST
BY SUNDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT DCA/BWI/IAD ON THURSDAY WERE AS FOLLOWS...

DCA...99F.
BWI...100F.
IAD...96F.

WITH 99 RECORDED...DCA BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
98 SET IN 1988. WITH 100 RECORDED...BWI TIED THE OLD RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 SET IN 1923. AT IAD...96 DID NOT BREAK THE
RECORD WHICH WAS 98 SET IN 1988.

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 78 WAS ALSO SET AT DCA. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 76 FROM 2010.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...LISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
231000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-231000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
146 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ036-037-221830-
NELSON VA-ALBEMARLE VA-
146 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NELSON AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHIPMAN...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE SCHUYLER.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 7896 3769 7899 3770 7903 3780 7903
      3798 7860 3776 7854 3774 7863 3772 7864
      3768 7864 3767 7866 3769 7869 3763 7872
      3764 7880 3760 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 260DEG 6KT 3774 7883

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

VAZ039-050-051-221830-
ORANGE VA-CULPEPER VA-MADISON VA-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ORANGE...CULPEPER AND MADISON
COUNTIES...

AT 151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOCUST DALE...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RAPIDAN...MITCHELLS...WINSTON...NASONS...
EVERONA...RACCOON FORD...RHOADESVILLE AND UNIONVILLE.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 7784 3815 7792 3828 7820 3840 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 274DEG 9KT 3834 7809

KONARIK