Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE WESTERN MID
ATLANTIC BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LEE
TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED INVERTED V STRUCTURE. WEAK
CAP AROUND 925MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR DAY...WITH WET MICROBURTS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE STEEPER THAN WHAT
MODELS FORECAST AND A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RUNS
THROUGH 9 PM FOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

DO THINK STORMS WILL FILL IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND REACH THE METRO AREAS BY EARLY THE
EVENING. IF CURRENT STORMS EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA MAY STRATIFORM OUT
WHEN IT REACHES THE METRO AREAS WITH DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/STRENGTH.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW...WITH VALUES NEAR
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AND WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND CAUSE AN AREA OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS MAY
BE REACHED EARLY ON MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PUSH THROUGH AFTER
FROPA AND CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FROPA MOVES THROUGH REGION.  BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE EVENING.  MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
FROPA WILL KEEP A TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SC COAST AND AWAY FROM THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE CLOSER TO
THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.  NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AND AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM CONVERGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ACTIVITY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND FROPA.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...AND
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE WITH SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ACTIVITY.  SCA IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
FROPA.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

LISTEMAA/SHEFFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
416 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
231000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
416 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE
OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-231000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
416 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
636 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW WINFIELD          39.48N  77.06W
06/22/2012                   CARROLL            MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            25 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200372

SMZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
645 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

DCZ001-MDZ009-010-013-014-VAZ042-052>054-501-502-222330-
MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER VA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-HOWARD MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAIRFAX VA-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
645 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BRING GUSTY WIND TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...ARLINGTON...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...SOUTHERN
FAUQUIER...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...PRINCE
GEORGES...ANNE ARUNDEL...HOWARD...LOUDOUN AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES...

AT 645 PM EDT...SHOWERS PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SAVAGE TO STERLING TO 3 MILES WEST OF TURNBULL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GEORGETOWN...JESSUP...CATHARPIN...
POTOMAC...FORT MEADE...WHEATON...CHEVY CHASE VIEW...WHITE OAK...CABIN
JOHN AND BELLEVIEW.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 7716 3847 7770 3872 7793 3905 7751
      3924 7678 3896 7656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 314DEG 18KT 3915 7681 3899 7742
          3865 7790

KONARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
647 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SCARBORO          39.66N  76.27W
06/22/2012                   HARFORD            MD   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN IN DRIVEWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200373

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MDZ007-222315-
HARFORD MD-
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT HARFORD COUNTY...

AT 651 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF
HAVRE DE GRACE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 7610 3954 7614 3961 7613 3960 7611
      3958 7609 3955 7607 3953 7608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 290DEG 18KT 3955 7605

KONARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
657 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SCARBORO          39.66N  76.27W
06/22/2012                   HARFORD            MD   PUBLIC

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200374

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
703 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW REISTERSTOWN       39.45N  76.83W
06/22/2012                   BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL BRANCHES HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ONTO
            VEHICLE ALONG MARSHALL WOOD RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1200375

KLW