Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.AVIATION...
THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF LOW STRATUS OR LIGHT FOG TO
AFFECT THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH...MOST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VERY PATCHY. DRIER AIR INCOMING FROM THE
NORTH WILL SCOUR OUT ANY FOG BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...THUNDER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS ALL CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL NOT HAVE THE ASSISTANCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONVERGENCE OVERHEAD THE
AREA. THE REGION WILL SEE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY PROMOTE
CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. THE NAM HAS NOT
DEVIATED FROM ITS BULLISH QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH STILL LOOKS
WELL OVERDONE. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE OUT WEST THIS MORNING WILL BE SQUASHED BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH VALUES PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. MOST MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO TODAY WHICH GARNERS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE SLIGHT POP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE A RELATIVE DOWN DAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. JDV

LONG TERM...
SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TRENDS TOWARD SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER
OUTCOME MAKE SENSE AS WAVE MOVES FURTHER INTO EASTERN TROUGH.
LEE-TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA
VICINITY SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE INTERFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MUCH AS WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER...WE STILL VIEW THE
MORE GENEROUS WRF/NAM AS DUBIOUS PREFERRING MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
BETTER RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE GFS. STILL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER
1.5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL WAVES SHOULD EJECT OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN
ENERGY REMAINING WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PER GFS SOLUTION.
THESE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LIKELY WILL
HAVE LESS FOCUS SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER SHOWERS ARE VIABLE EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY HEFTY. HEIGHTS ALSO SHOULD SLOWLY
RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND AS SUCH WE WILL REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING THUNDER CHANCES ALTHOUGH CLEARLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A
NON-ZERO CHANCE AT THIS TIME THAT MAY NEED MORE ATTENTION AS
DETAILS EMERGE. SLIGHT WARMING STILL INDICATED LATE IN THE WEEK.
FEW CHANGES OVER-ALL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  57  84  58  83 /  10  10  20  30  20
TULIA         82  60  84  59  81 /  10  10  10  30  20
PLAINVIEW     84  60  85  61  83 /  10  10  10  30  20
LEVELLAND     83  60  86  63  85 /  10  10  10  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  61  87  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  20
DENVER CITY   85  61  87  65  88 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    84  61  88  66  87 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     88  63  88  64  82 /  10   0  10  30  20
SPUR          86  64  89  66  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     91  65  91  69  87 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1013 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXZ027-028-033-034-191545-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-
1013 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST COCHRAN...NORTHWEST
HOCKLEY...SOUTHWEST LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 1013 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
PAIR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST
CENTRAL BAILEY COUNTY TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAILEY COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3423 10304 3424 10303 3391 10244 3361 10244
      3393 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 320DEG 12KT 3413 10300 3390 10261

MCZ