Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Lubbock, TX

811 
WWUS54 KLUB 191648
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXC445-191657-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-120819T1700Z/
TERRY TX-
1148 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TERRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3336 10282 3336 10263 3308 10260 3308 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 355DEG 15KT 3319 10272

$$

TXC501-191700-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-120819T1700Z/
YOAKUM TX-
1148 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
YOAKUM COUNTY UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN YOAKUM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. TAKE 
COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

MCZ

LAT...LON 3336 10282 3336 10263 3308 10260 3308 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 355DEG 13KT 3319 10272

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.AVIATION...
THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF LOW STRATUS OR LIGHT FOG TO
AFFECT THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH...MOST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VERY PATCHY. DRIER AIR INCOMING FROM THE
NORTH WILL SCOUR OUT ANY FOG BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...THUNDER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS ALL CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL NOT HAVE THE ASSISTANCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONVERGENCE OVERHEAD THE
AREA. THE REGION WILL SEE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY PROMOTE
CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. THE NAM HAS NOT
DEVIATED FROM ITS BULLISH QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH STILL LOOKS
WELL OVERDONE. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE OUT WEST THIS MORNING WILL BE SQUASHED BY THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW TODAY WITH VALUES PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. MOST MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO TODAY WHICH GARNERS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE SLIGHT POP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE A RELATIVE DOWN DAY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. JDV

LONG TERM...
SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TRENDS TOWARD SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER
OUTCOME MAKE SENSE AS WAVE MOVES FURTHER INTO EASTERN TROUGH.
LEE-TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA
VICINITY SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE INTERFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MUCH AS WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER...WE STILL VIEW THE
MORE GENEROUS WRF/NAM AS DUBIOUS PREFERRING MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
BETTER RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE GFS. STILL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER
1.5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL WAVES SHOULD EJECT OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN
ENERGY REMAINING WELL NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PER GFS SOLUTION.
THESE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LIKELY WILL
HAVE LESS FOCUS SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER SHOWERS ARE VIABLE EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY HEFTY. HEIGHTS ALSO SHOULD SLOWLY
RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND AS SUCH WE WILL REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING THUNDER CHANCES ALTHOUGH CLEARLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A
NON-ZERO CHANCE AT THIS TIME THAT MAY NEED MORE ATTENTION AS
DETAILS EMERGE. SLIGHT WARMING STILL INDICATED LATE IN THE WEEK.
FEW CHANGES OVER-ALL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  57  84  58  83 /  10  10  20  30  20
TULIA         82  60  84  59  81 /  10  10  10  30  20
PLAINVIEW     84  60  85  61  83 /  10  10  10  30  20
LEVELLAND     83  60  86  63  85 /  10  10  10  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  61  87  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  20
DENVER CITY   85  61  87  65  88 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    84  61  88  66  87 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     88  63  88  64  82 /  10   0  10  30  20
SPUR          86  64  89  66  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     91  65  91  69  87 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXZ021>044-201545-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AROUND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS IN ADDITION TO
VERY SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL CLOSE TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1013 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXZ027-028-033-034-191545-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-
1013 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST COCHRAN...NORTHWEST
HOCKLEY...SOUTHWEST LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 1013 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
PAIR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST
CENTRAL BAILEY COUNTY TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAILEY COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3423 10304 3424 10303 3391 10244 3361 10244
      3393 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 320DEG 12KT 3413 10300 3390 10261

MCZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1050 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXZ033-034-039-040-191615-
COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1050 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR YOAKUM...TERRY...COCHRAN AND
HOCKLEY COUNTIES...

AT 1048 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MORTON TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED IN RURAL SOUTHWEST COCHRAN COUNTY
ALSO MOVING SOUTH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE RAPID
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COCHRAN COUNTY EAST OF HIGHWAY
214.

LAT...LON 3360 10305 3383 10289 3382 10250 3317 10237
      3316 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 346DEG 8KT 3380 10271 3341 10260

MCZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

TXZ027-028-033-034-039-040-191645-
BAILEY-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1123 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 1120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MORTON TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MORTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...HAIL TO 1/2 INCH
IN DIAMETER AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS.

REPEATED HEAVY RAINS PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COCHRAN WILL LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ON MANY ROADS AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3396 10250 3316 10242 3310 10281 3391 10285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 353DEG 17KT 3388 10264 3329 10264

MCZ