Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KCDS.

FOR KLBB...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF KLBB SHOULD MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME WITH TCU AND
POSSIBLY -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD MOVE SOUTH AND IMPACT KLBB SOMEWHERE IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE HALL...CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RATHER TAME...THOUGH A FEW CELLS DO OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP. IN
ADDITION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR
TO HOUR. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COMPOSITE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
SOUTHWEST INTO CHILDRESS AND HALL COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR DIMMITT ESE TO SWEARINGEN. THE TRUE COLD
FRONT OF INTEREST THAT IS PROGGED TO DROP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY /UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES!/ WAS FOUND DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WRN
KANSAS AND ERN COLORADO. BRUNT OF THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY CONVECTING ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IS WEAK THUS FAR...THIS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEAR ON COURTESY OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX APPROACHING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. EVEN WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG...THIS IMPROVING
LIFT SHOULD SECURE A WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SMALL SEGMENTS OR LINES WITH DMGG WINDS THE GREATEST
THREAT BEFORE INTENSITY AND STORM COVERAGE WANE BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT SVR WATCH CAPTURES THIS THREAT WELL...BUT MAY REQUIRE
EXPANSION SWWD SHOULD TRENDS WARRANT. A FEW HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE TTU WRF AND HRRR DO INDICATE SUCH A SCENARIO FOR LUBBOCK AND
POINTS SOUTHWEST...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE ONCOMING
SHIFT. OTHERWISE...FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHING POPS. MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE TOMORROW AFTN IN ERN NM
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR SWRN COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE
NAM LOOKS MUCH TOO BULLISH WITH QPF IN SUCH A REGIME AND IS LARGELY
BEING DISMISSED

LONG TERM...
NNW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
SPAN FROM NWRN MEXICO UP TO NORTHERN ALBERTA.  OUT EAST...MATURE LOW
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN PART OF HUDSON BAY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.  BY MID WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND FLATTEN WITH SOME HINTS IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECM ABOUT A BIT OF A
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.  WHILE THE ECM
SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE INTO BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE
REGION...AND PRECIPITATION...THE GFS HAS MORE CLOSELY PARALLELED
REALITY FOR THE PAST WEEK AND THUS WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

GIVEN NWP PERFORMANCE AS OF LATE WRT QPF AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED
THAT WE WILL SEE AS MUCH RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT HAVE ELECTED ONLY TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND OF MONDAY
NIGHT POPS.  LIKE TODAY...VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL CONVECTS BUT PRECIP
HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH SOMETIME ON THURSDAY BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS ATTM.
GIVEN THAT...MOST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY ALTHOUGH WE WOULD LOVE
TO BE WRONG ABOUT THAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  83  57  85  58 /  30  10  10  20  30
TULIA         63  83  61  85  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     64  82  61  88  63 /  50  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     66  83  61  89  63 /  50  20  10  10  30
LUBBOCK       67  84  62  90  65 /  50  20  10  10  30
DENVER CITY   66  84  62  93  63 /  40  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    66  84  62  93  65 /  50  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  87  64  91  64 /  40  10   0  10  30
SPUR          68  86  65  94  68 /  50  20  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     70  89  67  97  68 /  50  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
212 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

TXZ021>044-191915-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
212 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM DIMMITT TO JAYTON. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
715 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

TXZ022-190045-
CASTRO-
715 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CASTRO COUNTY...

AT 709 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CASTRO COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT NAZARETH AND MAINLY RURAL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CASTRO COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3475 10199 3455 10199 3445 10200 3455 10230
      3475 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 017DEG 17KT 3471 10204

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

TXZ021-190100-
PARMER-
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARMER COUNTY...

AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRIONA...MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3431 10253 3431 10283 3468 10271 3468 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 007DEG 22KT 3458 10266

MRC