Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...
AND DEPENDENT ON PROSPECTS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT
1-5 HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR...BUT LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
KLBB TERMINAL. THIS AS A DRYLINE WILL RETREAT THROUGH THE KLBB
TERMINAL SHORTLY. A THIRD ROUND MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND IMPACT
THE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE KCDS VICINITY THROUGH 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT OF A LULL LATER ON IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO
MOISTEN UP AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR SHAPE RATHER
THAN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE INCREASING. AS
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL...STORMS WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE. SOME AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE
HEAVY AND BENEFICIAL RAINS WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. JDV

LONG TERM...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND SLOW IT
DOWN...ALMOST STALLING IT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
AND THIS WILL BE RATHER CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS TO OUR
WEATHER. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LOW-
END OF SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
BIT COOLER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA SO
ADJUSTED THESE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVOLVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO AFFECT
PERIODS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND SO MANY DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WEST OF A DRYLINE.
THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATER THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA INITIALLY
RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  55  29  53  34 /  20  10   0  20  20
TULIA         47  61  33  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     48  62  34  59  39 /  60  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     47  60  36  58  39 /  40  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  63  37  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   47  59  35  57  41 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    48  62  36  58  43 /  40  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     57  72  44  64  43 /  70  20  10  20  20
SPUR          55  68  45  62  45 /  70  20  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     58  72  49  66  44 /  60  30  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

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