Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...50+ KT AT 500MB
CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS
NO DOUBT THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING...AS 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...MOVING ENE TOWARDS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
WEST OF THE DRYLINE INCREASED A BIT THUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
MESOSCALE LIFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE BEST PRECIP TO BE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY 12Z...WITH THE CAPABILITY OF STORMS TO
BE STRONG AT TIMES. THIS IS NOTED BY ADEQUATE PWATS /AOA 0.70
INCHES/ AND ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC LIFT /60+ KT 500MB JET/...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL
HAIL. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHIFTS BEST PRECIP /AND MOISTURE
AXIS/ EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z...VERSUS 00Z BY THE NAM. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE FORMER SOLUTIONS MAY BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN BARELY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR ROLLING PLAINS FROM 18Z-00Z...JUST IN CASE OF ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT RATHER LIGHT
QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE WEST WITHIN THE MUCH DRYER AIR. CURRENT
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST A QUICK BOUT OF VIRGA SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 10 PERCENT...ALBEIT BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS.

THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PACIFIC FRONT WEST OF THE
DRYLINE INCREASING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED BY
A SFC LOW NORTH OF THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED LOCALES
ACROSS THE SAID AREA MIXING TO AOA 700 MB AND THUS TAPPING INTO 35+
KT WINDS. THAT IS LIKELY THE REASONING BEHIND MOS GUIDANCE HINTING
AT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AS THE
EXPECTED TIME LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK WILL TAP INTO THE 700 MB JET
/AOA 21Z/...THE JET MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA...NOT TO MENTION LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLY
INHIBITING DEEP MIXING. NEEDLESS TO SAY BREEZY WSW WINDS WILL ENSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHT ATTM. TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST
EAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE BEST PRECIP...HOWEVER A FEW -SHRA
COULD NEAR THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL THEREFORE OPT TO INCREASE
POPS TO 15 PERCENT. CONCURRENTLY...THE BROAD UA LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIG ESE AND BE NW OF KELP...THUS COMMENCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS NWRN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE INTRUDING PACIFIC
FRONT...WITH UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS IN CUTTING OFF
ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. 00Z RUNS ALSO SLOWLY MOVE THIS CUTOFF LOW NWD ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS OR NW TEXAS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH AND
EAST SIDES OF THE LOW AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING OF THE LOW THAT WOULD HAVE AFFECT THE
FCST FOR THE LUB FCST AREA WITH THE NAM DRIVING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN OTHER RUNS AND THEN FURTHER EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE
FURTHEREST NORTH. BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING RATHER TIGHT
GROUPING OF THE LOW EVEN AS LATE AS THE 72 HOURS PRECIP. MEXMOS
RESPONDS WITH 12-HOUR POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HARD TO IGNORE
THIS SCENARIO NOW AND WILL KEEP THE 20 PCT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AFTN AND INTRODUCE 20 TO 30 PCT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
PERIOD WHEN MODELS FINALLY SHIFT THE LOW INTO THE CNTL PLAINS.
FORTUNATELY PROGGED LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES STAY WARMER THAN 0C
KEEPING PRECIP LIQUID. CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL PER PREVIOUS FCSTS...BUT WITH SLOWER EGRESS OF THE
LOW FROM THE REGION WILL HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO PUMP MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINT TEMPS GREATER THAN 50F BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  29  55  32  57 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         61  34  59  35  56 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     61  35  58  37  56 /  10  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     60  36  56  38  58 /  10  10  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       63  38  59  39  57 /  10  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   60  36  55  38  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    62  37  54  39  58 /  10  10  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     72  42  66  44  59 /  30  20  10  30  30
SPUR          70  43  63  42  56 /  20  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  45  65  43  56 /  30  20  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ021>044-200115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TONIGHT/S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
203 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012  M74 MPH          HALL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KVII TV SCHOOLNET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200133

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012                   HALL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNS AND TREES BLOWN DOWN. EXTENT OF DAMAGE UNKNOWN
            ATTM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200134

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
239 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     HAIL             CHILDRESS               34.42N 100.25W
03/19/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHILDRESS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200135

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012                   HALL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WALL COLLAPSED AT LOCAL HEALTH CLINIC. HEAVY DAMAGE TO
            HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL STADIUM PRESS BOX. NUMEROUS
            TREES...FENCES...ROAD SIGNS DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200136

LINDLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ026-030>032-036>038-042-043-190830-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-GARZA-KENT-KING-MOTLEY-
300 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARZA...KENT...CROSBY...
DICKENS...KING...FLOYD...COTTLE...MOTLEY  AND CHILDRESS  COUNTIES...

AT 255 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES EAST OF
CHILDRESS TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF PADUCAH TO DICKENS TO 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF POST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3423 10000 3424 10001 3422 10005 3385 10005
      3363 10022 3341 10051 3298 10052 3296 10156
      3417 10096 3432 10041 3475 10031 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 270DEG 43KT 3447 9990 3382 10017
          3364 10073 3298 10116

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ031-032-037-038-042>044-190915-
COTTLE-DICKENS-GARZA-KENT-KING-MOTLEY-STONEWALL-
336 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARZA...STONEWALL...KENT...
DICKENS...KING...COTTLE  AND MOTLEY  COUNTIES...

AT 335 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
DICKENS TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 3297 10118 3339 10107 3339 10105 3420 10103
      3432 10014 3431 10000 3423 9999 3422 10005
      3385 10005 3383 9999 3309 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 259DEG 45KT 3376 10081 3305 10109