Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS KLBB ATTM AND SHOULD BE NEAR KCDS BY
08Z. QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD BOTH SIDES OF THE LINE AND
WILL LEAN TWD MVFR CIGS AT BOTH SITES LIFTING BY 12Z. WINDS MAY
BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT KLBB LATER IN THE DAY ONCE ABUNDANT MID
CLOUD DECK SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

UPDATE...
WE REMAIN POISED TO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION
TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL HAS EXITED THE LUB CWFA INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TORNADO WATCH #80 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT
03Z...AND WILL BE ALLOWED TO DO SO.

KLBB 88D NOW SHOWS THE CONVERGING PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. HIGH RES/MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT RENEWED ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVER TAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE.
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03-04Z ROUGHLY
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM DIMMITT...TO MORTON...PLAINS. MESOANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL
TO THE FORCING PROMOTING LINEAR AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
WITH A LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A WIND THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

AVIATION...
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...
AND DEPENDENT ON PROSPECTS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT
1-5 HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR...BUT LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
KLBB TERMINAL. THIS AS A DRYLINE WILL RETREAT THROUGH THE KLBB
TERMINAL SHORTLY. A THIRD ROUND MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND IMPACT
THE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE KCDS VICINITY THROUGH 10-12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT OF A LULL LATER ON IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO
MOISTEN UP AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR SHAPE RATHER
THAN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE INCREASING. AS
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL...STORMS WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE. SOME AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE
HEAVY AND BENEFICIAL RAINS WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. JDV

LONG TERM...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND SLOW IT
DOWN...ALMOST STALLING IT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
AND THIS WILL BE RATHER CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS TO OUR
WEATHER. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LOW-
END OF SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
BIT COOLER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA SO
ADJUSTED THESE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVOLVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO AFFECT
PERIODS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND SO MANY DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WEST OF A DRYLINE.
THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATER THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA INITIALLY
RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  53  34  57  35 /   0  20  20  10  10
TULIA         33  59  39  57  36 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     34  59  39  58  37 /  10  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     36  58  39  60  36 /  10  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       37  59  39  60  38 /  10  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   35  57  41  60  38 /  10  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    36  58  43  61  37 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     44  64  43  61  43 /  10  20  20  10  10
SPUR          45  62  45  61  42 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     49  66  44  63  43 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ021>044-200115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATE
EVENING ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TONIGHT/S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
141 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     TSTM WND GST     MACKENZIE RESERVOIR     34.55N 101.45W
03/19/2012  M66 MPH          BRISCOE            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200132

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
203 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012  M74 MPH          HALL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KVII TV SCHOOLNET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200133

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012                   HALL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNS AND TREES BLOWN DOWN. EXTENT OF DAMAGE UNKNOWN
            ATTM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200134

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
239 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     HAIL             CHILDRESS               34.42N 100.25W
03/19/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHILDRESS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200135

LINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
03/19/2012                   HALL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WALL COLLAPSED AT LOCAL HEALTH CLINIC. HEAVY DAMAGE TO
            HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL STADIUM PRESS BOX. NUMEROUS
            TREES...FENCES...ROAD SIGNS DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200136

LINDLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ026-030>032-036>038-042-043-190830-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-GARZA-KENT-KING-MOTLEY-
300 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARZA...KENT...CROSBY...
DICKENS...KING...FLOYD...COTTLE...MOTLEY  AND CHILDRESS  COUNTIES...

AT 255 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES EAST OF
CHILDRESS TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF PADUCAH TO DICKENS TO 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF POST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3423 10000 3424 10001 3422 10005 3385 10005
      3363 10022 3341 10051 3298 10052 3296 10156
      3417 10096 3432 10041 3475 10031 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 270DEG 43KT 3447 9990 3382 10017
          3364 10073 3298 10116

20