Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Lubbock, TX

March 18, 2012Cottle County, King County, Texas

NWS Lubbock, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 18, 2012, 4:09 PM CDT for Cottle County, King County, Texas. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 18, 2012, 4:09 PM CDT (21:09 UTC)
Expired: Mar 18, 2012, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Lubbock, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Cottle County, TX, King County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 18, 3:12 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1066 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -188 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

852 
WUUS54 KLUB 182109
SVRLUB
TXC101-269-182200-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0008.120318T2109Z-120318T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
409 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  KING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
  SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  GUTHRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GROW...CHALK AND
  HACKBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 10030 3357 10051 3409 10017 3405 10004
      3384 10004 3383 9999 3347 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 208DEG 32KT 3363 10035

$$

JDV

2 follow-up statements

472 
WWUS54 KLUB 182120
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXC101-269-182200-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120318T2200Z/
KING TX-COTTLE TX-
420 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
COTTLE AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GROW...CHALK AND HACKBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 10028 3363 10039 3386 10032 3409 10017
      3405 10004 3384 10004 3383 9999 3362 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 213DEG 28KT 3370 10021

$$

JDV

533 
WWUS54 KLUB 182144
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
444 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXC101-269-182200-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120318T2200Z/
KING TX-COTTLE TX-
444 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
COTTLE AND NORTHEASTERN KING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHALK...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  THIS STORM IS DISPLAYING INCREASING ROTATION 
ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF KING 
COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHALK AND HACKBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 10021 3386 10032 3409 10017 3405 10004
      3384 10004 3383 9999 3362 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 216DEG 20KT 3377 10009

$$

JDV

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 18, 3:30 PM CDT, 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 3:30 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT OF A LULL LATER ON IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO
MOISTEN UP AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR SHAPE RATHER
THAN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE INCREASING. AS
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL...STORMS WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE. SOME AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE
HEAVY AND BENEFICIAL RAINS WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. JDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND SLOW IT
DOWN...ALMOST STALLING IT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
AND THIS WILL BE RATHER CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS TO OUR
WEATHER. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LOW-
END OF SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
BIT COOLER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA SO
ADJUSTED THESE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVOLVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO AFFECT
PERIODS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND SO MANY DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WEST OF A DRYLINE.
THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATER THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA INITIALLY
RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  55  29  53  34 /  20  10   0  20  20
TULIA         47  61  33  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     48  62  34  59  39 /  60  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     47  60  36  58  39 /  40  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  63  37  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   47  59  35  57  41 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    48  62  36  58  43 /  40  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     57  72  44  64  43 /  70  20  10  20  20
SPUR          55  68  45  62  45 /  70  20  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     58  72  49  66  44 /  60  30  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

01/14

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 18, 12:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ021>044-191800-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH EAST TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
IT RETREATS WESTWARD THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATE EVENING ACTIVITY.

NON PRECIPITATION

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WEST OF A DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM FOR
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.

FIRE WEATHER

WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED
UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE EVENING ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 3:35 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ038-182100-
KING-
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KING COUNTY...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUTHRIE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3339 10031 3340 10052 3350 10052 3384 10024
      3384 10005 3383 9999 3370 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 225DEG 34KT 3343 10043

JDV

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ026-032-182115-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-
338 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE  AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES...

AT 336 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10000 3424 10001 3424 10004 3420 10006
      3409 10038 3422 10052 3431 10048 3432 10042
      3442 10042 3465 10031 3436 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 214DEG 20KT 3421 10041

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 3:55 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ043-044-182145-
KENT-STONEWALL-
355 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONEWALL AND KENT COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE JAYTON AND PEACOCK.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3300 10086 3339 10068 3340 10013 3297 10050
      3296 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 220DEG 30KT 3303 10068

AMP.22

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 18, 3:27 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	LUB	Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Hale, Hockley, Lamb and 6 more	17 hr
Mar 18, 3:27 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	LUB	Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Hockley, Lamb, Parmer and 3 more	17 hr
Mar 18, 3:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	King	25 min
Mar 18, 3:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	Childress	37 min
Mar 18, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Childress, Cottle, Hall	59 min
Mar 18, 3:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	Kent	50 min
Mar 18, 4:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	Cottle	29 min
Mar 18, 4:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Childress	66 min
Mar 18, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	King	46 min
Mar 18, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	King, Stonewall	41 min
Mar 18, 5:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	King	13 min
Mar 18, 5:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LUB	King	38 min
Mar 18, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Childress	18 min
Mar 18, 6:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	Garza	44 min
Mar 18, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LUB	Garza, Lynn	66 min
Mar 18, 6:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LUB	Cottle	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.