Special Weather Statement, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT OF A LULL LATER ON IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO
MOISTEN UP AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR SHAPE RATHER
THAN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE INCREASING. AS
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL...STORMS WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE. SOME AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO SEE
HEAVY AND BENEFICIAL RAINS WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. JDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND SLOW IT
DOWN...ALMOST STALLING IT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
AND THIS WILL BE RATHER CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS TO OUR
WEATHER. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS POSSIBILITY
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LOW-
END OF SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
BIT COOLER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA SO
ADJUSTED THESE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EVOLVE IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO AFFECT
PERIODS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND SO MANY DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO MAKE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WEST OF A DRYLINE.
THIS DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATER THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA INITIALLY
RAISING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  55  29  53  34 /  20  10   0  20  20
TULIA         47  61  33  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     48  62  34  59  39 /  60  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     47  60  36  58  39 /  40  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  63  37  59  39 /  50  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   47  59  35  57  41 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    48  62  36  58  43 /  40  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     57  72  44  64  43 /  70  20  10  20  20
SPUR          55  68  45  62  45 /  70  20  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     58  72  49  66  44 /  60  30  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

01/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ021>044-191800-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH EAST TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
IT RETREATS WESTWARD THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATE EVENING ACTIVITY.

NON PRECIPITATION

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WEST OF A DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM FOR
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.

FIRE WEATHER

WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED
UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE EVENING ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ038-182100-
KING-
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KING COUNTY...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUTHRIE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3339 10031 3340 10052 3350 10052 3384 10024
      3384 10005 3383 9999 3370 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 225DEG 34KT 3343 10043

JDV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TXZ026-032-182115-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-
338 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE  AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES...

AT 336 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10000 3424 10001 3424 10004 3420 10006
      3409 10038 3422 10052 3431 10048 3432 10042
      3442 10042 3465 10031 3436 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 214DEG 20KT 3421 10041