Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Louisville, KY

186 
WWUS53 KLMK 291710
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1110 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC031-141-227-291715-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-120229T1715Z/
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-BUTLER KY-
1110 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1106 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR COSTELOW...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HADLEY AND BROWNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8689 3722 8662 3692 8658 3688 8685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 259DEG 57KT 3700 8669
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

JDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1018 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1018 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Scattered convection continues across the forecast area.  Pair of
supercells are crossing the I-65 corridor in southern Hardin and
northern LaRue counties.  These storms are heading northeast and
those located in counties along the Bluegrass Parkway from E-Town to
Lexington should be on the alert for severe weather over the next
few hours.  Additional storms are developing across our far SW just
west of Bowling Green.  Those storms will be moving into an
environment which should result in continued development.
Additional scattered convection continues to develop northwest of
the main line across far NW KY and southern Indiana.  This activity
is not severe, but is capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
rains.  At this time, we still believe the highest threat of severe
weather will be south of the WKY and BG parkways through the
remainder of the morning and the afternoon hours.

Update issued at 903 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Broken line of convection now has cleared the Louisville metro and
all of southern Indiana.  Will be clearing some counties to the
northwest of the convective line after coordinating with SPC.  Line
of storms continue across north-central Kentucky east of the I-65
corridor.  These will affect the Lexington metro area within the
hour.  Main threats with this line will be damaging winds...however
given the bulk shear can not rule out small tornadic spinups within
the line.  Most significant potential for severe weather will remain
across southern Kentucky this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Current indications is that the worst severe weather will likely be
confined to areas south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
parkways...with a strong emphasis on counties across our southern
forecast area.  Airmass destabilization continues and storms across
Ohio/Butler/Grayson county will be moving into an environment that
will continue to support its severe status.  Updated forecast
products will be available shortly...followed by continued mesoscale
updates as this dangerous weather situation unfolds.

Update issued at 810 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Line of convection is now approaching the Ohio River.  This activity
is moving to the east at 50-55 MPH and will be impacting the I-65
corridor and the Louisville Metro over the next hour.  Current
mesoscale analysis reveals a moderately unstable atmosphere across
primarily southern Kentucky.  Pool of 60+ dewpoints is currently
located generally west of I-65.  This combined with a relatively
cooler airmass aloft has resulted in surface based LI's dropping to
around -3 to -4.  While surface winds are generally out of the
southwest...there remains considerable speed shear in the lower
atmosphere that has resulted in long curved hodographs and resulting
in helicity values of 350-500 M2/S2.  The highest helicity values
are across southern KY with lesser values the further north one
goes.  Convection is more linear across the northern part of KY and
southern Indiana...however the better moisture and shear have
supported a long tracked supercell that is moving through southern
Ohio and northern Butler county.  Downstream areas such as Grayson,
Butler, Edmonson, and Hart counties should be on the alert for
severe weather over the next hour.

Update Issued at 650 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Did a subtle update to the grids that will not show up in the zones.
Not seeing much recovery in dewpoints behind the main line still out
to our west. Have dropped pops a little behind this line for the
afternoon. Still cannot rule out some severe storms however, given
strong winds aloft and expected heating. Latest NMM-WRF still shows
discrete cells forming this afternoon and larger scale models still
try and show a line of precip coming through this afternoon.

Update issued at 608 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Line of thunderstorms is west of the area, with airmass quickly
destabilizing out ahead of it.  Have had several tornado warnings
issued out to the west, with some verification. Based on an expected
similar airmass moving into our area, would expect the line to
survive as it heads quickly east. In addition may have some
development out ahead of it that is surface based. Updated products
have already gone out and a tornado watch has been issued.

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Updated at 340 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Warm front a little difficult to find at this hour, but looking at
dewpoints and based on storm cell we issued an earlier warning on,
it would appear to be right along the I-64 corridor. As expected
with the increase in southerly winds across the area, temperatures
and dewpoints are rising slowly at this time. Winds just above the
surface are cranking, with latest area VAD profilers giving winds of
50-55 kts at 3000 feet, 60-70 kts at 4000 feet. Though temperatures
are rising, we still have not seen evidence of any of these cells
becoming surface-based, though winds out ahead of the line are
gusting to 20-30 kts this hour.

Including the current line of storms going through the region, we
might see 3 rounds of storms before the day is over. The second is a
line currently moving through MO/AR. This line may have enough of a
punch to bring some gusty winds just after daybreak to the region,
and will have to watch here again for any type of surface-based
convection as guidance keeps in strong low-level winds and 400-500
0-1 km helicities. However, the line should start breaking up around
daybreak though as it heads into central Kentucky and pulls farther
away from the parent cold front.

Behind that line will be a brief lull in precip as the dry slot gets
over us. Low clouds may stick around through the day, potentially
limiting available instability for the third round of storms just
ahead of the cold front. Still, the southwesterly winds through the
day should make temperatures continue to rise despite the cloud
cover, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 areawide.
Precipitable waters remain fairly high this afternoon, with readings
around 1.25 inches. Forcing just ahead of the front combined with
any type of heating should be enough to initiate another line around
or just after Noon. Shear profiles associated with this line should
be more unidirectional, but we still will have roughly 70 kts of 0-6
km shear! Thus cannot rule out another damaging wind threat with
this line as well as tornadoes. If I had to pin down an area, would
have to agree with SPC, which has held pretty steady the past couple
of days in their outlook for this region, of along and east of an
SDF to BWG line for having the best chance at seeing severe weather
withing this third line of storms.

Behind this third line, the front will move through with just a
subtle shift in winds to westerly overnight and drier air filtering
in. Expect skies to clear areawide by midnight, with lows falling
into the lower 40s. Given the not that cool air behind this front
and the full sunshine expected Thursday, have gone for highs around
60 over the north and in the upper 60s across the south.

.Long Term (Thursday Night- Tuesday)...
Updated at 320 AM EST Feb 29 2012

...Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms again Friday
afternoon and night...

Surface low will strengthen as it moves out of the southern Plains
to the middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday night. This will
occur ahead of a positively tilted trough developing over the
central CONUS with 100-120 knot upper level jet rounding the base.
Most of Thursday night will be dry with increasing mid and upper
level clouds ahead of the next system. A warm front will approach
the Tennessee border toward dawn with WAA showers and thunderstorms
possible across the southern tier or two of counties before dawn on
Friday. Warm front will quickly lift north across the CWA during the
late morning on Friday with numerous showers and thunderstorms as
the surface low continues to strengthen on its way to the southern
Great Lakes.

Friday afternoon and evening look to be interesting as the CWA
quickly finds itself in the warm sector and surface based storms
combine with a veering and strong shear profile ahead of a cold
frontal passage. With surface temperatures in the upper 60s and
possibly low 70s, and dew points likely in the 55-60 degree range,
moderate instability appears possible despite heavy cloud cover for
much of the day. Shear profile is also impressive with and increase
to 45-50 knots with h85 jet and enough veering in the low to mid
levels to support supercells. It appears we may have to overcome
some degree of low level inversion through the afternoon hours, and
with heavy cloud cover, the degree of destabilization that models
suggest seems like it could be overdone. That being said, potential
exists for strong and severe storms Friday afternoon and evening and
system will have to be watched. Adding confidence, SPC just included
the entire CWA in a slight risk, with the majority of the CWA in an
enhanced area for severe weather.

Cold front will quickly race from west to east across the CWA Friday
night with thunderstorm chances likely ending by midnight. Trough
will continue to slide east over the eastern CONUS with cooler
airmass in place for the weekend. Highs will drop back to around 50
for Saturday with lows Saturday night around freezing. Saturday and
Saturday night look to be dry as deeper moisture quickly departs
with the system and surface high pressure briefly takes control.

Sunday could be an interesting day as a wave of energy appears to
dive across the northern plains and into the region. Although
surface temperatures will be warming into the mid and upper 40s by
midday, a look at thermal profiles reveals that a rain/snow mix or
even ice pellets will be possible through midday as steep low level
lapse rates combine with some low level moisture. After
collaboration with surrounding offices, will only keep mention of
rain for now as temps will quickly warm and timing/placement of
system is still in question. Should the system arrive, quicker
mention of convective snow showers/ice pellets may be needed with
future forecasts.

Dry weather looks to return Sunday night through Tuesday as surface
high pressure and ridging aloft dominate the weather pattern. Look
for highs back around 60 by Tuesday afternoon with lows around 30
Sunday night warming to the mid 30s by Monday night.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 600 AM EST Feb 29 2012

Warm front has made it north of all of the TAF sites this hour. A
line of elevated thunderstorms runs from KSDF to KBWG and is heading
rapidly east. Another stronger line of storms will come through the
TAF sites between 12 and 15Z with gusts to 30-40 knots likely as
possible IFR conditions. Then expect a break in the storms at each
site, though could keep MVFR cigs until the next line develops near
a KSDF to KBWG line around Noon and heads east. Winds will be gusty
through the day today ahead of a cold front and outside of the
storms, as the pressure gradient across the region is tight. Will
see a subtle shift to westerly as the front passes through later
today and tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1040 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012 /940 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  AT THIS TIME...THE AREA AT
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THAT PART OF KENTUCKY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.  WEATHER SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

RJS/BJS/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1118 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ061-070-071-291645-
BUTLER-LOGAN-WARREN-
1018 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOGAN AND SOUTHERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 1015 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF ELKTON...AND MOVING EAST AT
75 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  MORGANTOWN...
  LOST CITY AND INSCO...
  ANDERSON AND COSTELOW...
  SHARER AND RICHELIEU...
  HADLEY AND ROCKLAND...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27
AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8706 3708 8699 3707 8695 3709 8690
      3712 8690 3715 8693 3720 8691 3726 8661
      3685 8649 3684 8659 3688 8662 3688 8664
      3683 8670 3679 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 256DEG 65KT 3696 8704

JDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1121 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     TORNADO          HODGENVILLE             37.57N  85.74W
02/29/2012                   LARUE              KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DEBRIS AND FUNNEL SEEN NEAR FAIRGROUNDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200140

CMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1127 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E HODGENVILLE         37.57N  85.72W
02/29/2012                   LARUE              KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HOUSE DESTROYED ON STILES FORD ROAD AND KY 210

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200141

CMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1128 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ027-028-053-291700-
GRAYSON-HARDIN-LARUE-
1128 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1124 AM EST/1024 AM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  INDIAN HILLS AND TUNNEL HILLS...
  TONIEVILLE AND TALLEY...
  TANNER AND ROANOKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8605 3783 8575 3781 8574 3779 8574
      3779 8573 3778 8574 3775 8569 3744 8572
      3743 8582 3745 8604 3743 8604 3742 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 257DEG 61KT 3779 8596 3743 8613

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1134 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSON                37.49N  86.22W
02/29/2012                   GRAYSON            KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            HOUSE DAMAGED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200142

CMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ027-028-045-053-291715-
GRAYSON-HARDIN-LARUE-NELSON-
1141 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 1138 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ELEVATED ROTATION.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HODGENVILLE...
  NOLIN AND SONORA...
  TONIEVILLE AND MATHERS MILL...
  LEAFDALE AND ROANOKE...
  ATHERTONVILLE AND NEW HAVEN...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
76 AND 93.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 123 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10
AND 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8563 3755 8553 3744 8591 3745 8604
      3742 8604 3740 8604 3740 8606 3759 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 251DEG 56KT 3751 8602

JDG