Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED AT LFT AND AEX.
A STRONG STORM IS SITUATED ACRS INTERIOR SE TX...ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SO KEPT VCSH AT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...FEW
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TAF PKG WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE FM THE
ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHT AND VRBL OR SLY WINDS.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL APART THIS EVENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE. LOOKING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER. THROUGH
02Z...INCLUDED VCTS AT LCH...LFT AND ARA WITH VCSH AT BPT AND AEX
WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS
THE SEABREEZE TRAVELS INLAND UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR, VARIOUS ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAD
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH HAVE SINCE MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST REGION. AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND, A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND PROGRESS AT A MODERATE
PACE. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO FALL.

CURRENTLY WV/IR SAT AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA.  A CORRESPONDING FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER EASTERN GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS STALLED FRONT HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO THE ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SOON DISSIPATE INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES, TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WEEK THE MODEL EXHIBITS ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHING
MODERATE VALUES OF UPPER SIXTIES AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT WITH THE
STALLED FRONT AND WARM MOIST CONDITIONS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. CHOSE TO KEEP THE POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE. THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF SHOULD FORM A SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG TERM WE HAVE BEGUN A PROGRESSIVE SUMMER PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ARE CARRYING A 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DAYS.

DEAL/STACKHOUSE

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  89  73  90 /  20  30  10  20
KBPT  73  90  74  90 /  20  30  10  20
KAEX  70  91  70  93 /  40  30  10  20
KLFT  73  90  72  91 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
141630-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OCCASIONAL TO
SOMETIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS,
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY BE A CONCERN IF A STORM
REMAINS OVER AN AREA THAT RECEIVED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL TO SOMETIMES FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-141630-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1052 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

TXZ259-140430-
NORTHERN JASPER TX-
1052 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM
CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF BROWNDELL...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROWNDELL BY 1105 PM...
  EBENEZER BY 1115 PM...
  JASPER BY 1130 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3093 9387 3087 9417 3107 9427 3112 9408
      3112 9405 3114 9404 3116 9391

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

TXZ180-259-260-140530-
NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-TYLER TX-
1134 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JASPER...NEWTON AND TYLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF JASPER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FARRSVILLE BY 1140 PM...
  JAMESTOWN AND MAGNOLIA SPRINGS BY 1145 PM...
  ROGANVILLE AND MT. UNION BY 1150 PM...
  BURKEVILLE BY 1155 PM...
  NEWTON BY MIDNIGHT...
  STRINGTOWN AND KIRBYVILLE BY 1210 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...PEA
TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3084 9357 3071 9364 3065 9393 3070 9423
      3081 9428 3107 9425 3117 9382 3118 9368

K. KUYPER

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