Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER. THROUGH
02Z...INCLUDED VCTS AT LCH...LFT AND ARA WITH VCSH AT BPT AND AEX
WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS
THE SEABREEZE TRAVELS INLAND UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR, VARIOUS ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAD
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH HAVE SINCE MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST REGION. AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND, A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND PROGRESS AT A MODERATE
PACE. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
ALTHOUGH BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO FALL.

CURRENTLY WV/IR SAT AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA.  A CORRESPONDING FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER EASTERN GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS STALLED FRONT HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO THE ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SOON DISSIPATE INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES, TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WEEK THE MODEL EXHIBITS ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHING
MODERATE VALUES OF UPPER SIXTIES AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT WITH THE
STALLED FRONT AND WARM MOIST CONDITIONS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. CHOSE TO KEEP THE POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE. THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF SHOULD FORM A SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG TERM WE HAVE BEGUN A PROGRESSIVE SUMMER PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ARE CARRYING A 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DAYS.

DEAL/STACKHOUSE

MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  89  73  90 /  20  30  10  20
KBPT  73  90  74  90 /  20  30  10  20
KAEX  70  91  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
KLFT  73  90  72  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
141630-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OCCASIONAL TO
SOMETIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS,
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.
MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY BE A CONCERN IF A STORM
REMAINS OVER AN AREA THAT RECEIVED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL TO SOMETIMES FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-141630-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LEESVILLE               31.14N 93.27W
06/13/2012                   VERNON             LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LEESVILLE.

&&

DJONES