Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.UPDATE...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES FOR THE WATCH AREA.
AFTER 10 PM...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
RUC SHOWING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND COOLING TOPS OVER CAMERON
AND CALCASIEU PARISHES WHERE HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRCIP WATER ON THE EVENING LCH SOUNDING WAS
A RESOUNDING 2 INCHES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF TNITE WILL BE ACADIANA
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012/

UPDATE...PER COORD WITH SPC...TOR WATCH 71 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM, REPLACED BY TOR WATCH 72 VALID UNTIL 2 AM. THIS
NEW WATCH INCLUDES RAPIDES, AVOYELLES, ALLEN, AND EVANGELINE
PARISHES. THE BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR VERNON AND
BEAUREGARD PARISHES SHORTLY. ZONE UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012/

AVIATION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM BEAUREGARD/RAPIDES PARISHES SOUTH
IN CAMERON PARISH AND OUT INTO THE GULF. LARGE RAIN SHIELD RUNS
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND HAVE PUT STORMS INTO TAFS ACRS SOUTH
CNTRL LA. STORMS HAVE ENDED FOR SE TX ALTHOUGH CLOUDS TO HOLD IN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS IS REFLECTED IN ALL TAFS.
LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR THRU MIDNIGHT AND LIFR/IFR THRU SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY FOR GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO BRING IN A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINT READINGS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. IS ON THE MOVE AND HAS BEEN QUICKLY RELOCATED TO
KANSAS. A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ROTATING AROUND
THIS FEATURE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE INTERACTION WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PUSH ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION TO GO WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SURFACE BASED ROTATING CELLS THAT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE. THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO CAMERON LINE THROUGH 7 PM.

ALSO...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...AS STRONG LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE
HOWEVER...SHOULD LIMIT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...WITH TAIL END OF UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY EAST OF LAFAYETTE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO A WARM SEASON SET-UP.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
PREVAILING SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RELAXING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO END
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  78  64  78  64 /  30  30  10  20  10
KBPT  65  79  65  78  66 /  20  30  10  20  10
KAEX  64  80  62  78  63 /  40  30  10  20  10
KLFT  65  79  63  78  64 /  40  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
121100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK IS CONDITIONAL...HOWEVER...AS
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY POOR
INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...BUT DECREASE TO A DAILY DAYTIME SLIGHT CHANCE THEREAFTER.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-121100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
GULF WATERS ON MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO HEED ADVISORIES AND HEADLINES...AND
BE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ030-041-112330-
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-
529 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD AND CALCASIEU PARISHES
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR FIELDS...OR ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF
FIELDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SINGER...MERRYVILLE AND RAGLEY BY 540 PM...
  LONGVILLE BY 545 PM...
  TULLA BY 550 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3080 9314 3040 9317 3031 9353 3030 9372
      3050 9365 3080 9355

K. KUYPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ027-028-120045-
RAPIDES LA-VERNON LA-
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAPIDES AND VERNON PARISHES UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SLAGLE...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LACAMP...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LACAMP BY 645 PM...
  LEANDER...CLIFTON AND FLATWOODS BY 700 PM...
  SIEPER BY 705 PM...
  HINESTON BY 710 PM...
  HINESTON BY 715 PM...
  OTIS AND LENA BY 720 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3150 9271 3150 9268 3146 9270 3144 9268
      3140 9267 3140 9262 3142 9252 3090 9252
      3089 9309 3133 9301 3135 9295 3137 9295
      3137 9292 3139 9292 3152 9272

K. KUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE GRAND LAKE         30.04N 93.26W
03/11/2012                   CAMERON            LA   PUBLIC

            SHED BLOWN DOWN... FLATBED TRAILOR THROWN AND FLIPPED
            OVER...TOOL SHED DOORS BLOWN OUT.

&&

K. KUYPER