Areal Flood Warning 14, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1012 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ALONG LEFT OVER STALLED OUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
AND TRAINING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS EVENT...WITH INITIAL
REPORTS OF HOUSES BEING FLOODED IN CARENCRO WITH RESCUES UNDER
WAY. ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS JET STREAK DEPARTS. MEANWHILE...WARM HUMID AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH POP UP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AGAIN SOME MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLEX ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERESTING SET OF TAFS THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE SERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LOCAL 88DS SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING WHICH ARE IMPACTING KLFT/KARA. ACROSS THE NWRN 1/3 OF
THE AREA...DROPPING CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES
ARE MOVING IN FROM ERN TX. IN BETWEEN...JUST MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. BY SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT ALL SITES TO GO MVFR
THEN LIKELY VFR BUT WITH VCSH AND SRLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS.

FOR THIS MORNING AT KLFT...CARRIED TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
15Z AS SW-NE ORIENTED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY LIFTS
NWD. ONLY CARRYING VCSH AT KARA AS OF NOW AS THIS CLUSTER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THIS SITE. UP AT KAEX...INITIALIZED AT MVFR BUT
BROUGHT IN IFR CIGS SHORTLY AS STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD
EWD/SEWD. BROUGHT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLCH AS
LOCAL EFFECTS COULD ALLOW SOME THICKER FOG TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.
STAYED MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KBPT AS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD PRECLUDE
LOWER STRATUS FROM FORMING AS IT HAS IN CLEARER SKIES FARTHER
NORTH INTO ERN TX. HOWEVER SHOULD THIS STRATOCU DISSIPATE WE COULD
SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS GET INTO THIS SITE THIS MORNING AS WELL.

FOR ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BELOW
INVERSION OFF THE SFC. WENT LOWER ON VISIBILITIES AT USUAL SITES
ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO TOO LOW WITH EITHER CIGS OR VSBYS ATTM TO
ALLOW BETTER REFINEMENT OF THESE FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THAT TIME FRAME.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012/

UPDATE...THE AREA OF WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT HAD BEEN OVER
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE BACK NW WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN TOW. UPPED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AND CENTRAL
LA, BUT MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH AREA. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS HEADING EAST WITH IT AND
ACROSS SE LA, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY, SLIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE,
AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN AROUND PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA. THROUGH TODAY, AND AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A S TO SE
FLOW, BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND TODAY, EACH DAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65 WITH A FEW MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK
RIDGING.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND UNDER SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  61  79  63  79 /  30  10  20  10  20
KBPT  79  63  79  65  79 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  79  61  80  62  78 /  30  10  20  20  20
KLFT  76  64  82  64  80 /  80  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
131100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
510 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW LAND FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR SOME AREA RIVERS AND WHERE AMPLE
RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS MAY FARTHER
AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENT REGARDING RIVER FLOODING.

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG SECTIONS OF THE
CALCASIEU RIVER AND BUNDICK CREEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-131100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
510 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1024 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW CARENCRO           30.35N 92.07W
03/12/2012                   LAFAYETTE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUES UNDERWAY FOR STUDENTS ON A BUS.

&&

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW ARNAUDVILLE        30.37N 91.99W
03/12/2012  M10.09 INCH      ST. LANDRY         LA   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE USGS GAGE AT BAYOU VERMILION RIVER NEAR
            CARENCRO...BVCL1...REPORTING 10.09 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
            THE LAST 6 HOURS.

&&

JRUA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1110 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE OPELOUSAS         30.53N 92.07W
03/12/2012                   ST. LANDRY         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            I49 SOUTHBOUND AT US 190 AND I49 NORTHBOUND AT GLORIA
            SWITCH ROAD SHUT DOWN DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

RDEAL