Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jackson, KY

995 
WWUS53 KJKL 282000
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYC069-205-282010-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-120328T2015Z/
ROWAN KY-FLEMING KY-
400 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLEMING AND
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM.

LAT...LON 3846 8357 3843 8357 3841 8348 3839 8345
      3840 8341 3836 8341 3842 8368 3851 8367
      3851 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 277DEG 34KT 3844 8349

$$

SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPC PUT OUT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE VERY STRONG AND ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE CLEAR SKIES OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE. WITH THE FREEZING AT 10.8K FT...AND SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY. EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INITIAL
SHORTWAVE THAT TRANSITS THE REGION SOMETIME AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR AS
LATE AS SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A SFC WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY NO LATER THAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEAVES EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE UPPER
MID WEST. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU ASK A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER IN THE TRUEST SENSE OF THE WORD
BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON ANY SOLUTION IN A LARGE PART EITHER.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
START OF THE WORKWEEK. POSSIBLY BECAUSE NEXT SYSTEM...LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AND USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER AIR
FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS THE TENDENCY WILL BE TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...OR PERSISTENCE UNTIL MODELS GEL BETTER
ON SOME TYPE OF REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
SOME TEMPO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HAIL IN THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE VERY UNFORGIVING...NOT TO
MENTION THE WIND SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING.
SOME GUST FRONTS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...SO THE WIND
THREAT COULD EXTEND 10 TO 30 MILES OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...JUST EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...OR HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AND FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYZ044-052-282000-
ROWAN-FLEMING-
316 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN AND
   FLEMING.

AT 315 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
FAIRVIEW...OR 15 MILES EAST OF CYNTHIANA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN
AROUND 320 PM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 325 PM EDT...FLEMINGSBURG AROUND
330 PM EDT...DALESBURG AROUND 335 PM EDT AND FOXPORT AROUND 340 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF