Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Jackson, KY

118 
WWUS53 KJKL 282004
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYC011-282014-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120328T2015Z/
BATH KY-
404 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BATH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3820 8341 3829 8365 3831 8367 3837 8365
      3840 8346 3839 8345 3840 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 277DEG 34KT 3832 8359

$$

KYC069-205-282015-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120328T2015Z/
ROWAN KY-FLEMING KY-
404 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLEMING AND NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HILLSBORO...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MUSES MILLS AND HILDA AROUND 410 PM EDT.
  WALTZ...CRANSTON...HAYS CROSSING AND MUNSON AROUND 415 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 8341 3829 8365 3831 8367 3837 8365
      3840 8346 3839 8345 3840 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 277DEG 34KT 3832 8359
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SHALLENBERGER

396 
WWUS53 KJKL 282014
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYC069-205-282024-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120328T2015Z/
ROWAN KY-FLEMING KY-
414 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FLEMING AND NORTH
CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3820 8341 3829 8365 3831 8367 3837 8365
      3840 8346 3839 8345 3840 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 277DEG 34KT 3831 8347

$$

SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SPC PUT OUT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE VERY STRONG AND ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE CLEAR SKIES OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED THE LOW LEVELS TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE. WITH THE FREEZING AT 10.8K FT...AND SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT...THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY. EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INITIAL
SHORTWAVE THAT TRANSITS THE REGION SOMETIME AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR AS
LATE AS SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A SFC WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY NO LATER THAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEAVES EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE UPPER
MID WEST. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU ASK A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER IN THE TRUEST SENSE OF THE WORD
BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON ANY SOLUTION IN A LARGE PART EITHER.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
START OF THE WORKWEEK. POSSIBLY BECAUSE NEXT SYSTEM...LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AND USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER AIR
FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS THE TENDENCY WILL BE TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...OR PERSISTENCE UNTIL MODELS GEL BETTER
ON SOME TYPE OF REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
SOME TEMPO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HAIL IN THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE VERY UNFORGIVING...NOT TO
MENTION THE WIND SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING.
SOME GUST FRONTS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...SO THE WIND
THREAT COULD EXTEND 10 TO 30 MILES OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...JUST EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1101 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...OR HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AND FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

KYZ044-052-282000-
ROWAN-FLEMING-
316 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN AND
   FLEMING.

AT 315 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
FAIRVIEW...OR 15 MILES EAST OF CYNTHIANA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN
AROUND 320 PM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 325 PM EDT...FLEMINGSBURG AROUND
330 PM EDT...DALESBURG AROUND 335 PM EDT AND FOXPORT AROUND 340 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF