Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Jackson, KY

817 
WWUS53 KJKL 152118
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC013-121-152128-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120315T2145Z/
KNOX KY-BELL KY-
518 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BELL AND EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL KNOX COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3683 8331 3685 8338 3688 8347 3700 8353
      3700 8330 3696 8315 3695 8315 3696 8313
      3695 8307 3686 8295 3684 8301 3685 8303
      3685 8307 3679 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 281DEG 10KT 3694 8343

$$

KYC051-095-131-152145-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120315T2145Z/
LESLIE KY-CLAY KY-HARLAN KY-
518 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HARLAN...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN LESLIE COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRUCE PINE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARLAN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARLAN...MOZELLE...BLEDSOE...KEITH...RIO VISTA...LOYALL...
  INCLINE...ROSSPOINT...GATUN...BAXTER...LEWIS CREEK...RHEA...
  NAPIER...GOLDEN ASH...KELLIOKA...JONESBURG...KITTS...CLOVERTOWN...
  REX AND HARLAN GAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 8331 3685 8338 3688 8347 3700 8353
      3700 8330 3696 8315 3695 8315 3696 8313
      3695 8307 3686 8295 3684 8301 3685 8303
      3685 8307 3679 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 281DEG 10KT 3694 8343
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

KAS

206 
WWUS53 KJKL 152141
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
541 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC051-095-131-152150-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120315T2145Z/
LESLIE KY-CLAY KY-HARLAN KY-
541 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HARLAN...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN LESLIE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM
EDT...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3683 8331 3685 8338 3688 8347 3700 8353
      3700 8330 3696 8315 3695 8315 3696 8313
      3695 8307 3686 8295 3684 8301 3685 8303
      3685 8307 3679 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 281DEG 10KT 3693 8335

$$

KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

ITS SUMMERTIME IN MARCH...WITH SLOW MOVING POORLY ORGANIZED PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE. IT TOOK ON AN MCS TYPE STRUCTURE LATE
LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...BUT THIS BROKE DOWN WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...WHICH
IS NOW ONGOING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECAUSE OF MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SURFACE BASED LIFTED
INDICIES WERE RUNNING FROM -3 TO -6 OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHEAR WAS PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL REPORTS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. WILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN KENTUCKY ACTIVITY IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE
EAST AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTH. HAVE USED LIKELY POPS THERE...AND CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. THE
PASSING OF THE SAME WAVE BRINGS A LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP TO THE REST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST AND HEATING IS LOST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...WANING OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHEAR WILL AGAIN
BE WEAK ON FRIDAY...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE ANY GREATER
THAN TODAY. THE BIGGEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL FROM PULSE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN...SHOULD ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BE ABLE TO TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN IN PLACE. THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FEATURES A
500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
US. WHILE THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DOWN...THE
ACTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
ARE LESS CONSISTENT TO SAY THE LEAST. WILL EXUDE A LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THIS PATTERN.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 500MB TO THE SURFACE...EXPECTING A DEEP
MOIST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE...KEEP THE OHIO
VALLEY IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTEN WITH CHANCE POPS PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A DIURNAL TYPE PATTERN...PULSING WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY GIVING A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN THE PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION PROVIDED SOME CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH PASSING TIME AS
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WAS SHOWING AN EASTWARD DRIFT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. WILL LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS COOLING OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER INCREASE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANY STORM COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR...BUT
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ060-106-108-152045-
MENIFEE-MORGAN-WOLFE-
355 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 445
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN MENIFEE...
   SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND
   NORTH CENTRAL WOLFE.

AT 356 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POMEROYTON...
OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRENCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ARTVILLE AROUND
405 PM EDT...MAYTOWN AROUND 410 PM EDT...EZEL AROUND 415 PM EDT...
TOLIVER AROUND 420 PM EDT...OMER AROUND 425 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             4 NW HAZARD             37.29N 83.25W
03/15/2012  E0.25 INCH       PERRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE SHERIFF.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             KALIOPI                 37.23N 83.42W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       LESLIE             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HELL FOR CERTAIN ROAD.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE SHERIFF.

&&

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ060-106-108-109-152130-
MENIFEE-MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-WOLFE-
444 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN...
   EAST CENTRAL MENIFEE...
   SOUTHERN MORGAN AND
   NORTH CENTRAL WOLFE.

AT 444 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEKIN...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...GRASSY CREEK
AROUND 450 PM EDT...NICKELL AROUND 455 PM EDT...GREEAR AROUND 500 PM
EDT...STACY FORK AROUND 505 PM EDT...MALONE AROUND 510 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN