Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Jackson, KY

118 
WWUS53 KJKL 151059
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
659 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC121-151108-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120315T1115Z/
KNOX KY-
659 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3667 8345 3680 8375 3686 8368 3687 8364
      3689 8363 3691 8358 3694 8357 3694 8359
      3695 8358 3692 8350 3690 8350 3690 8348
      3688 8346 3689 8344 3687 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 295DEG 14KT 3685 8360

$$

KYC013-095-151115-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120315T1115Z/
BELL KY-HARLAN KY-
659 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
HARLAN AND NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

AT 657 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RELLA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KETTLE ISLAND...VARILLA...MIRACLE...STONY FORK JUNCTION...
  CALLAWAY...MOLUS...LAYMAN...BLACK SNAKE...TACKY TOWN...COLDIRON...
  BALKAN...INSULL...PATHFORK...WALLINS CREEK...KERR...LONGTON...SOUTH
  WALLINS...OAKS...KENTENIA AND LOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8345 3680 8375 3686 8368 3687 8364
      3689 8363 3691 8358 3694 8357 3694 8359
      3695 8358 3692 8350 3690 8350 3690 8348
      3688 8346 3689 8344 3687 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 295DEG 14KT 3685 8360
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
DUSTY

219 
WWUS53 KJKL 151110
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC013-095-151120-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120315T1115Z/
BELL KY-HARLAN KY-
710 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN AND
NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 AM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3667 8345 3680 8375 3686 8368 3687 8364
      3689 8363 3691 8358 3694 8357 3694 8359
      3695 8358 3692 8350 3690 8350 3690 8348
      3688 8346 3689 8344 3687 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 295DEG 14KT 3683 8355

$$

DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ALONG A BKN LINE FROM
ERN OH DOWN TO ERN/CENTRAL TN. STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WELL
BEHAVED THUS FAR OVER THE CWA WITH AN AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF ABOUT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE TO OUR NE FOR THE MOMENT
HOWEVER...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OUR CUMBERLAND COUNTIES HAS BEEN
LOOKING INCREASINGLY HAUGHTY...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
GRAUPEL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOZ. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF ANY REPORTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM DISPATCH THERE
IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS
TREATMENT UNLESS THINGS REALLY START PICKING UP. FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MODIFIED TRENDS HEADING
INTO THE FIRST PERIOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG...POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
CONVECTION IS ALREADY UPON US EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR BLUEGRASS AND NRN
COUNTIES. STORMS OVER WRN/CENTRAL KY EARLIER HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL....NO DOUBT A HARBINGER
OF THINGS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

FCST SOUNDINGS FROM STEM TO STERN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE REMAINS
THE IDENTIFICATION OF VIABLE TRIGGERS AS THERE DEFINITELY APPEARS TO
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TODAY...TONIGHT...AND
TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE THE SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...OR LACK
THEREOF WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROF TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR...THOUGH
THE NAM...SREF...AND GFS ALL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS LLJ OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO HAMPER
CONFIDENCE TO THE POINT OF KEEPING POPS TODAY TO SCATTERED. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...ANYONE AND EVERYONE WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT TRIGGER ARRIVES SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS ANOTHER...MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE GRACES
THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INCORPORATED A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE
POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL STILL KEEP SCATTERED
WORDING FOR NOW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO ANEMIC FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AGAIN...THE
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY TSTMS ON FRIDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT 50H SETS THE STAGE FOR THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS A DIRTY RIDGE WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU
AND GENERALLY MINOR BOUNDARIES SETTING OFF SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FCST. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND A MOIST
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 50S. IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO SET OFF PERIODIC STORMS. IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE 50H TROF
BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES THAT THE PERTURBANCES THAT
SET OFF THE WET WEATHER START MOVING FARTHER NORTH THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INSTEAD OF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. A SIGNIFICANT SFC TROF
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS STATES BUT HANGS THERE AS AN
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS FCST THE 50H TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES A CUT
OFF LOW AND STAGNATES ALONG WITH THE SFC PCPN ALONG THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY. LOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO BE DRY AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

ISOLATED SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH BASED AND RELATIVELY BENIGN
THRU THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 12Z...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS THOUGH STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS THROUGH THE DAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE LOW END OF VFR.
IN AND AROUND AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO IFR OR WORSE WITH VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN SWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOME SLACKENING EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ044-051-052-150830-
ROWAN-BATH-FLEMING-
354 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 430
AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN...
   CENTRAL BATH AND
   EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL FLEMING.

AT 354 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OWINGSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MARSHALL AROUND
400 AM EDT...POLKSVILLE AROUND 405 AM EDT...MOORE'S FERRY AROUND 410
AM EDT...YOUNG SPRINGS AROUND 415 AM EDT...MIDLAND AROUND 420 AM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ080-085-086-150915-
WHITLEY-LAUREL-KNOX-
428 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

   WESTERN KNOX...
   NORTHERN WHITLEY AND
   SOUTHERN LAUREL.

AT 428 AM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHTOP TO REDBIRD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON TO WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WALDEN AROUND
435 AM EDT...WOFFORD AROUND 440 AM EDT...YADEN AROUND 445 AM EDT...
LONDON-CORBIN AIRPORT AROUND 450 AM EDT...FARISTON AROUND 455 AM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
459 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 AM     HAIL             CORBIN                  36.94N 84.11W
03/15/2012  E0.25 INCH       WHITLEY            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCHER RELAYED REPORT FROM CRUISER OF BRIEF HEAVY
            DOWNPOUR WITH MAINLY PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR THE S.CORBIN
            EXIT/MM25.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
502 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     HAIL             CORBIN                  36.94N 84.11W
03/15/2012  M0.50 INCH       WHITLEY            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER LOCATED IN E.CORBIN IN KNOX COUNTY REPORTED
            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL. LARGEST WAS ABOUT DIME SIZED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
511 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 AM     HAIL             2 E CORBIN              36.94N 84.07W
03/15/2012  E0.50 INCH       KNOX               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS HOMINY TO AROUND DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             1 N BARBOURVILLE        36.88N 83.88W
03/15/2012  M0.75 INCH       KNOX               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED. LARGEST WAS 3/4 INCH.

0530 AM     HAIL             1 N BARBOURVILLE        36.88N 83.88W
03/15/2012  M0.75 INCH       KNOX               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED. LARGEST WAS 3/4 INCH.

&&

MB