Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

095 
WWUS53 KJKL 151933
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYC025-119-131-193-152000-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-120315T2000Z/
KNOTT KY-LESLIE KY-PERRY KY-BREATHITT KY-
333 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
BREATHITT...NORTHERN PERRY...NORTH CENTRAL LESLIE AND WEST CENTRAL
KNOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
KRYPTON...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAZARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HYDEN...HAZARD...DRYHILL...TOULOUSE...DICE...AVAWAM...WOOTON...
  BULAN AND RITCHIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8305 3712 8341 3731 8348 3742 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 299DEG 15KT 3730 8333
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE MOST HEFTY
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MID DAY. THE
AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT DURING THE
MORNING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON A BIT OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE HINDERED WARMING SO
FAR TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE SUN WAS MOST ABUNDANT IN THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MCS CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST IN WV...WITH JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THIS WAS
HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION
IN THE NORTH IS ON PACE TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAVE A RELATIVE LULL FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AFTER
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO VA/WV. HAVE BEEN GIVEN A GLACE AT WHAT IS IN STORE LATER
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL FROM THE MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS IN THE SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW. THE NEXT BAND OF TSTMS
IS ALREADY ON THE HORIZON AND IS ON PACE TO REACH OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES BY AROUND 11 AM...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD.

HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT A PERIOD EARLY TONIGHT WHERE CONVECTION MAY
DWINDLE AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR TSTMS STILL LOOK TO REDEVELOP BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ALONG A BKN LINE FROM
ERN OH DOWN TO ERN/CENTRAL TN. STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WELL
BEHAVED THUS FAR OVER THE CWA WITH AN AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF ABOUT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE TO OUR NE FOR THE MOMENT
HOWEVER...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OUR CUMBERLAND COUNTIES HAS BEEN
LOOKING INCREASINGLY HAUGHTY...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
GRAUPEL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOZ. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF ANY REPORTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM DISPATCH THERE
IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS
TREATMENT UNLESS THINGS REALLY START PICKING UP. FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MODIFIED TRENDS HEADING
INTO THE FIRST PERIOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG...POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
CONVECTION IS ALREADY UPON US EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR BLUEGRASS AND NRN
COUNTIES. STORMS OVER WRN/CENTRAL KY EARLIER HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL....NO DOUBT A HARBINGER
OF THINGS TO COME OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

FCST SOUNDINGS FROM STEM TO STERN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE REMAINS
THE IDENTIFICATION OF VIABLE TRIGGERS AS THERE DEFINITELY APPEARS TO
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TODAY...TONIGHT...AND
TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE THE SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...OR LACK
THEREOF WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROF TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR...THOUGH
THE NAM...SREF...AND GFS ALL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS LLJ OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO HAMPER
CONFIDENCE TO THE POINT OF KEEPING POPS TODAY TO SCATTERED. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY...ANYONE AND EVERYONE WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT TRIGGER ARRIVES SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS ANOTHER...MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE GRACES
THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INCORPORATED A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE
POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL STILL KEEP SCATTERED
WORDING FOR NOW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO ANEMIC FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AGAIN...THE
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY TSTMS ON FRIDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT 50H SETS THE STAGE FOR THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS A DIRTY RIDGE WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU
AND GENERALLY MINOR BOUNDARIES SETTING OFF SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FCST. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND A MOIST
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DWPTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 50S. IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO SET OFF PERIODIC STORMS. IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE 50H TROF
BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES THAT THE DISTURBANCES THAT
SET OFF THE WET WEATHER START MOVING FARTHER NORTH THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INSTEAD OF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. A SIGNIFICANT SFC TROF
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS STATES BUT HANGS THERE AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS FCST THE 50H TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES A CUT OFF LOW
AND STAGNATES ALONG WITH THE SFC PCPN ALONG THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
LOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO BE DRY AND WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH PASSING TIME AS
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WAS SHOWING AN EASTWARD DRIFT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTAINED SMALL HAIL. WILL LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS COOLING OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER INCREASE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANY STORM COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR...BUT
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
638 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             PIPPA PASSES            37.33N 82.87W
03/15/2012  M0.25 INCH       KNOTT              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SHALLENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ107-110-119-120-151915-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-PIKE-FLOYD-
251 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN JOHNSON...
   SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN...
   NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
   NORTHERN FLOYD.

AT 251 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAINTSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...AUXIER AROUND
300 PM EDT...DICKS CREEK AROUND 305 PM EDT...CORN FORK HOLLOW AROUND
310 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE
AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
252 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             TURKEY CREEK            37.67N 82.31W
03/15/2012  M0.50 INCH       PIKE               KY   PUBLIC

&&

SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
254 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 E GUERRANT            37.51N 83.48W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ059-060-108-151930-
MENIFEE-POWELL-WOLFE-
255 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 330
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTH CENTRAL MENIFEE...
   SOUTHEASTERN POWELL AND
   NORTHWESTERN WOLFE.

AT 255 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLADE...OR 9
MILES EAST OF STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...GLENCAIRN
AROUND 300 PM EDT...KOOMER RIDGE CAMPGROUND AROUND 305 PM EDT...RED
RIVER GORGE AROUND 310 PM EDT...CALABOOSE AROUND 320 PM EDT...VALERIA
AROUND 325 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE
AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ112>115-117-151945-
KNOTT-LESLIE-OWSLEY-PERRY-BREATHITT-
308 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 345
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   WEST CENTRAL KNOTT...
   NORTH CENTRAL LESLIE...
   SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
   NORTHERN PERRY AND
   SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT.

AT 308 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSH BRANCH...
OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...CHAVIES AROUND
315 PM EDT...LAMONT AROUND 320 PM EDT...KRYPTON AROUND 325 PM EDT...
TOULOUSE AROUND 330 PM EDT...BULAN AROUND 345 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE
AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN