Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jackson, KY

355 
WWUS53 KJKL 021428
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
928 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC125-199-203-021500-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LAUREL KY-
928 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LAUREL...ROCKCASTLE AND EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

AT 924 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MOUNT VICTORY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF SOMERSET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUNCH...BILLOWS...CEDARVILLE AND PONGO AROUND 935 AM EST.
  BERNSTADT...LUNER...WELLHOPE AND WABD AROUND 940 AM EST.
  CARMICHAEL...HARE...WOOD CREEK LAKE AND PITTSBURG AROUND 945 AM
  EST.
  OAKLEY...EAST BERNSTADT AND VICTORY AROUND 950 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DILLON
AND OAKLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 8428 3733 8414 3721 8398 3695 8439
      3699 8449 3722 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 235DEG 40KT 3708 8436
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF

074 
WWUS53 KJKL 021438
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC125-199-203-021500-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LAUREL KY-
938 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LAUREL...SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE AND EAST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 AM EST...

AT 933 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNCH...OR 12 MILES WEST OF LONDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARE...CARMICHAEL...WOOD CREEK LAKE AND PITTSBURG AROUND 945 AM
  EST.
  OAKLEY...EAST BERNSTADT...VICTORY AND MERSHONS AROUND 950 AM EST.
  GREENMOUNT...ATLANTA...TEMPLER AND HORSE LICK AROUND 955 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DILLON
AND OAKLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8415 3721 8398 3704 8427 3709 8435
      3723 8451 3742 8424 3735 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 235DEG 40KT 3714 8425
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF

444 
WWUS53 KJKL 021450
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
950 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC125-199-203-021500-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LAUREL KY-
950 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LAUREL...SOUTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

AT 947 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 
THE QUARTER SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARMICHAEL...OR 6 
MILES NORTHWEST OF LONDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENMOUNT...ATLANTA...VICTORY AND TEMPLER AROUND 955 AM EST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR CONTINUOUS CLOUD 
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8429 3722 8441 3736 8420 3735 8416
      3733 8415 3721 8398 3712 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 235DEG 40KT 3721 8412
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF

300 
WWUS53 KJKL 021456
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC125-199-203-021505-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120302T1500Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LAUREL KY-
956 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAUREL...SOUTHEASTERN
ROCKCASTLE AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM
EST...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY...HOWEVER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING.

LAT...LON 3716 8429 3722 8441 3736 8420 3735 8416
      3733 8415 3721 8398 3712 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 235DEG 40KT 3725 8405

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
837 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THUS...HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME HIGHER CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
KNOCKING AT OUR DOORSTEP...JUST NOW PUSHING INTO AREAS AROUND
MONTICELLO. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION...STILL LOOKING LIKE A
POTENTIAL BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. HAD SOME REPORTS OF
SUBSEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING (HAIL LESS THAN AN INCH IN
DIAMETER)...BUT NOTHING SEVERE AS OF YET. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE FORECAST IN GENERAL REMAINS ON TARGET...THOUGH CONVECTION UP UNTIL
THIS POINT HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GET GOING TO OUR
SW IN NORTHERN MIDDLE TN AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTH
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ELEVATED AND EITHER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL KY AND THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM
MIDDLE TN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL...AND PERHAPS SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...BUT ANY OUTFLOWS OR CONVECTION UPSTREAM
THAT MOVES IN OR ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. OTHER THAN THE QUESTION OF A TRIGGER DURING MID AFTERNOON
AND SOME HINT OF MID LEVEL CAPPING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IF
ANYTHING WERE TO GET GOING IT COULD BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR WILL BE
AMPLE. IF THIS WERE TO BE IN SUPERCELL FORM...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AN EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...BUT THE
PREVIOUS ZFP WAS STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NE OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH A SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. AT
PRESENT IT IS ABOUT 2 MB STRONGER THAN THE 6Z NAM RUNS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN MOST OF THE 0Z MODEL RUNS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...WITH
THE MOST RAPID DEEPENING OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH THE
COLD FRONT REACHING THE JKL CWA DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXIT INTO VA EARLY ON AT AM.

DESPITE RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS AT PRESENT WITH SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS AT PRESENT IN THE 30S...A RATHER DRAMATIC RISE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...MOVING NORTH AND EAST OF THE JKL CWA
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...BUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 40S ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN...THE 50S TO THE SOUTH
OF THAT AREA MIDDLE AND EAST TN AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH IN MS AND
AL...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.

MODELS ALL PROG A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA...AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST CENTRAL KY SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF
MIDDLE TN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RATHER LIMITED AND THIS CONVECTION ELEVATED...BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST. MID
LEVEL WARMING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SYSTEM ALREADY A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS FIELDS ARE
PROGGED ALOFT...GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH THIS IN MIND WENT WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM TODAY. ANY CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE FORM OF CLUSTERS OR
SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AMPLE SHEAR.
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON DOES APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THOUGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY BE PRESENT WITH NOT MUCH OF A
TRIGGER.

THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A MODERATE RISK IN THE
DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...ANY STRONGER STORM DURING THE DAY COULD ALSO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP HAVING A
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE LOWER LEVELS EVENTUALLY
WILL BE MORE SATURATED. SUPERCELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS ONGOING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO EASTERN KY SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND RACE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS STORMS WOULD ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE PERIOD OF THREAT FOR THE LARGEST HAIL
MAY BE FROM VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROGGED...LEADING TO LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS NEAR 8KFT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. ANY
ROTATING CELLS WOULD HAVE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS HIS PERIOD AND WOULD
BRING A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

WITH THE FRONT AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ON TOP OF ALREADY WET GROUND FROM RECENT IN
MAY PLACES HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ANY TRAINING WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MODELS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED BACK ON THE QPF...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AND
IN ANY TRAINING. OPTED TO CHANGE THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS FROM THAT
POINT ON WILL BE ON TOP OF RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION THIS AM THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ALSO OPTED TO MOVE THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 4 AM
ON SAT AM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONT...WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON SAT MORNING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SAT WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. MAX
T MAY NOT REACH 50 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONCLUDE THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN
THEREAFTER.

A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON AND
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN CYCLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATTER WAVE IS MORE
INTENSE HAS MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE STUCK WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
FORCING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL YIELD MAINLY SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...A SLUSHY INCH
OF SNOW COULD MAKE FOR SLOW COMMUTE TIMES MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODEST RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BRING MILDER AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE INITIAL BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS THE DRY
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY SIDED WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE THEN
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS BRINGING AN INCREASE AND LOWERING IN
CLOUDS AT PRESENT ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS BY DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE CWA. IT STILL
APPEARS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TO 19Z AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A LULL IN THE PRECIP THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z AND 01Z.

FOCUS DURING THE LAST 12 TO 18 HRS OF THE PERIOD CENTERES AROUND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NW OF THE AREA AND SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...GENERALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY THE EVENING HOURS OVER ERN KY. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP AFTER 12Z...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT...BUT A BIT LATER THAN TYPICAL DUE TO PRECIP
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE WELL INTO THE AM. THIS WILL
CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z OR SO.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN. AROUND THE
END TIME OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...OR ABOUT 17Z
AND AFTER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD PICK UP WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20KT AND SOME GUSTS NEARING 30KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 17Z AND 01Z...EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE AND
TIMING IN WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION BEFORE 22Z IS RATHER
LOW...BUT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z. EXCEPT FOR THIS PERIOD... HIGHLIGHTED
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH CB GROUPS AND OR VCTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-031200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
458 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35
TO 40 MPH AND LEAD TO ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN JACKSON KY.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031200-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
458 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35
TO 40 MPH AND LEAD TO ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN JACKSON KY.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ108-109-111>114-021345-
KNOTT-MAGOFFIN-OWSLEY-WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-
817 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 845
AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   NORTHWESTERN KNOTT...
   EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...
   NORTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
   SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE...
   SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND
   BREATHITT.

AT 818 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON...OR 9
MILES EAST OF BOONEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...CURT AROUND 825
AM EST...QUICKSAND AROUND 830 AM EST...STEVENSON AROUND 835 AM EST...
GUAGE AROUND 840 AM EST...LAMBRIC AROUND 845 AM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE
AREAS.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             3 N MANCHESTER          37.20N 83.77W
03/02/2012  M0.50 INCH       CLAY               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCARICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
836 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ079-083-084-021400-
MCCREARY-PULASKI-WAYNE-
836 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 900
AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   NORTHERN MCCREARY...
   SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI AND
   WAYNE.

AT 836 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ZULA...OR 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MONTICELLO
AROUND 845 AM EST...STEUBENVILLE AROUND 850 AM EST...QUINTON AROUND
855 AM EST...AND BRONSTON AROUND 900 AM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
851 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ068-079-080-083-021430-
PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WAYNE-LAUREL-
851 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 930
AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   PULASKI...
   SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE...
   NORTHERN WAYNE AND
   WEST CENTRAL LAUREL.

AT 851 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
STEUBENVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...TRIMBLE AROUND
900 AM EST...PULASKI COUNTY PARK AROUND 905 AM EST...FERGUSON AROUND
910 AM EST...RUTH AROUND 915 AM EST...AND GRADE AROUND 920 AM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ068-079-083-021445-
PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WAYNE-
900 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 945
AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   PULASKI...
   ROCKCASTLE AND
   NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE.

AT 859 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NAOMI...OR 11
MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...NANCY AROUND
905 AM EST...PULASKI COUNTY PARK AROUND 910 AM EST...SOMERSET AROUND
915 AM EST...SCIENCE HILL AROUND 920 AM EST...AND DABNEY AROUND 925
AM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ084>086-021500-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
913 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...
   SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND
   WHITLEY.

AT 913 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
STRUNK...OR NEAR ONEIDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HOLLYHILL
AROUND 920 AM EST...AYERS AROUND 925 AM EST...MOUNTAIN ASH AROUND 930
AM EST...PLEASANT VIEW AROUND 935 AM EST...AND VERNE AROUND 940 AM
EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF