Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, KY

240 
WGUS73 KJKL 021844
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC013-095-133-022330-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120302T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LETCHER KY-BELL KY-HARLAN KY-
144 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARLAN...BELL AND
SOUTHERN LETCHER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

BELL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 6 INCHES OF WATER OVER 25E 
OUTSIDE MIDDLESBORO AT 1 PM. ALSO IN BELL COUNTY TWO FEET OF WATER 
WAS REPORTED ACROSS HIGHWAY 1344 NEAR CALVIN AT 1 PM.   

AS OF 140 PM HEAVY RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES. 
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES IN BELL COUNTY RECORDED 1.06 INCHES OF RAIN AT 
YELLOW CREEK AND 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN AT MIDDLESBORO. 

IN HARLAN COUNTY AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE RECORDED 1.26 INCHES OF 
RAIN AT EVARTS. IN LETCHER COUNTY AT KINGDOM COME 0.59 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN...AND ANOTHER HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 140 PM 
AND 230 PM EST.  

RUNOFF FROM THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...HARLAN...MIDDLESBORO...CALVIN...MELDRUM...MARY ALICE...
AND CLOSPLINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8393 3663 8395 3687 8358 3690 8349
      3689 8341 3693 8338 3701 8314 3699 8311
      3702 8305 3704 8306 3716 8269 3704 8272
      3697 8286 3690 8287 3684 8301 3685 8307
      3674 8313 3666 8342 3666 8353 3658 8369

$$

SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

DRY SLOT IS NOT NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...ENDING
PRECIPITATION THERE TEMPORARILY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH
SOME BROKEN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DECENT MIXING
POTENTIAL...WE SHOULD SEE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH LIKELY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ACTIVITY ARRIVING AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INTO OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES
TOWARDS 5 OR 6 PM...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
10 PM. EARLY ON...STILL CONCERNED WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A TORNADO. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE REGION...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A SPIN UP TORNADO
ALONG THE LINE IS POSSIBLE STILL. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE OVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER RAIN PUSHING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH
DECENT CLEARING SPREADING INTO THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT A DISTINCT BACK EDGE AND DRY SLOT...BEHIND
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT IS NOTED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
USING THE TIMING TOOL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 19Z...PROVIDING A DECENT BREAK FOR
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR IS HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY
WELL. IT SHOWS SOME DISTINCT SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT IN THE
BLUEGRASS BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. THESE MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES AROUND THIS TIME. THESE STORMS WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THESE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A BRIEF SPIN
UP ALONG THIS LINE IS POSSIBLE...PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO OUR WEST UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z. SO THE MAIN
THREAT PRIOR TO THAT TIME WILL BE THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 60 WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70. CERTAINLY JUICY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED. FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALSO APPEARS
A BIT ENHANCED WITH EARLY DAY RAINFALL ADDING TO THE ALREADY SOAKED
GROUND AND BANK FULL CREEKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THUS...HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME HIGHER CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
KNOCKING AT OUR DOORSTEP...JUST NOW PUSHING INTO AREAS AROUND
MONTICELLO. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION...STILL LOOKING LIKE A
POTENTIAL BREAK BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. HAD SOME REPORTS OF
SUB-SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING (HAIL LESS THAN AN INCH IN
DIAMETER)...BUT NOTHING SEVERE AS OF YET. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE FORECAST IN GENERAL REMAINS ON TARGET...THOUGH CONVECTION UP UNTIL
THIS POINT HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GET GOING TO OUR
SW IN NORTHERN MIDDLE TN AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTH
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ELEVATED AND EITHER WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL KY AND THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM
MIDDLE TN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL...AND PERHAPS SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...BUT ANY OUTFLOWS OR CONVECTION UPSTREAM
THAT MOVES IN OR ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. OTHER THAN THE QUESTION OF A TRIGGER DURING MID AFTERNOON
AND SOME HINT OF MID LEVEL CAPPING IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IF
ANYTHING WERE TO GET GOING IT COULD BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR WILL BE
AMPLE. IF THIS WERE TO BE IN SUPERCELL FORM...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AN EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...BUT THE
PREVIOUS ZFP WAS STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NE OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH A SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. AT
PRESENT IT IS ABOUT 2 MB STRONGER THAN THE 6Z NAM RUNS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN MOST OF THE 0Z MODEL RUNS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...WITH
THE MOST RAPID DEEPENING OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH THE
COLD FRONT REACHING THE JKL CWA DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXIT INTO VA EARLY ON AT AM.

DESPITE RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS AT PRESENT WITH SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS AT PRESENT IN THE 30S...A RATHER DRAMATIC RISE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...MOVING NORTH AND EAST OF THE JKL CWA
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...BUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 40S ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN...THE 50S TO THE SOUTH
OF THAT AREA MIDDLE AND EAST TN AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH IN MS AND
AL...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.

MODELS ALL PROG A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA...AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST CENTRAL KY SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF
MIDDLE TN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RATHER LIMITED AND THIS CONVECTION ELEVATED...BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST. MID
LEVEL WARMING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SYSTEM ALREADY A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS FIELDS ARE
PROGGED ALOFT...GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH THIS IN MIND WENT WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM TODAY. ANY CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE FORM OF CLUSTERS OR
SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AMPLE SHEAR.
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON DOES APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THOUGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY BE PRESENT WITH NOT MUCH OF A
TRIGGER.

THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A MODERATE RISK IN THE
DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...ANY STRONGER STORM DURING THE DAY COULD ALSO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP HAVING A
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE LOWER LEVELS EVENTUALLY
WILL BE MORE SATURATED. SUPERCELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS ONGOING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO EASTERN KY SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND RACE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS STORMS WOULD ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE PERIOD OF THREAT FOR THE LARGEST HAIL
MAY BE FROM VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROGGED...LEADING TO LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS NEAR 8KFT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. ANY
ROTATING CELLS WOULD HAVE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS HIS PERIOD AND WOULD
BRING A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

WITH THE FRONT AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ON TOP OF ALREADY WET GROUND FROM RECENT IN
MAY PLACES HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ANY TRAINING WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MODELS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED BACK ON THE QPF...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AND
IN ANY TRAINING. OPTED TO CHANGE THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS FROM THAT
POINT ON WILL BE ON TOP OF RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION THIS AM THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WE ALSO OPTED TO MOVE THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 4 AM
ON SAT AM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONT...WITH ONLY
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON SAT MORNING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SAT WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. MAX
T MAY NOT REACH 50 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONCLUDE THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN
THEREAFTER.

A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON AND
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN CYCLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATTER WAVE IS MORE
INTENSE HAS MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE STUCK WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE WINDOW OF BEST
FORCING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL YIELD MAINLY SNOW FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...A SLUSHY INCH
OF SNOW COULD MAKE FOR SLOW COMMUTE TIMES MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...MODEST RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BRING MILDER AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE INITIAL BLENDED GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS THE DRY
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY SIDED WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE THEN
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 23Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. GIVEN THE LIKELY STRONG
WINDS...HAVE PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
DOWNBURST WINDS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF
TONIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN THE COMPLEX WEATHER THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED
TO WAIT ON INCLUDING ANY FOG FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-031945-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35
TO 40 MPH AND LEAD TO ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN JACKSON KY.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-031945-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35
TO 40 MPH AND LEAD TO ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN JACKSON KY.

KYZ088-118>120-031945-
HARLAN-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN TORNADOES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35
TO 40 MPH AND LEAD TO ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN TODAY OR TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN JACKSON KY.

JP/DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ084>086-021500-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
913 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...
   SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND
   WHITLEY.

AT 913 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
STRUNK...OR NEAR ONEIDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HOLLYHILL
AROUND 920 AM EST...AYERS AROUND 925 AM EST...MOUNTAIN ASH AROUND 930
AM EST...PLEASANT VIEW AROUND 935 AM EST...AND VERNE AROUND 940 AM
EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
950 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-107-109-110-119-120-021515-
MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-FLEMING-JOHNSON-MARTIN-
MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-PIKE-FLOYD-
950 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   JOHNSON...
   NORTHERN MAGOFFIN...
   MARTIN...
   MENIFEE...
   NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...
   MORGAN...
   NORTHERN PIKE...
   ROWAN...
   BATH...
   ELLIOTT...
   FLEMING AND
   NORTHERN FLOYD.

AT 948 AM EST...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNT STERLING TO SALYERSVILLE TO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GILBERT CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
FLEMINGSBURG...MOREHEAD...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...INEZ... AND
PHELPS.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PASS...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1017 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ088-115-117-118-021600-
LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY-HARLAN-
1017 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1100 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHEASTERN LESLIE...
   LETCHER...
   SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND
   HARLAN.

AT 1017 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLTS...OR 11
MILES EAST OF HARLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BENHAM AROUND
1025 AM EST...LYNCH AROUND 1030 AM EST...DAY AROUND 1035 AM
EST...EOLIA AROUND 1040 AM EST...AND ERMINE AROUND 1045 AM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1053 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL SEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS GUSTS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

JP/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ085>087-021800-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
1211 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 100
PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...
   SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND
   BELL.

AT 1204 PM EST...A STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF ONEIDA
IN TENNESSEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...FONDE AND WILKERSON BETWEEN 1230 AND 1245 PM...MIDDLESBORO
AROUND 1245 PM...AND PINEVILLE TOWARD 1 PM.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY...

THE PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK HAS INCREASED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY FROM HARLAN TO PIKEVILLE.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG...LONG
TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

NOW IS THE TIME DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER IF A TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED.

IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TORNADO WARNINGS WILL FOLLOW.

NOW IS THE TIME TO DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER IF A
TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO
IS IN AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER OR BASEMENT. IF AN UNDERGOUND SHELTER OR
BASEMENT IS NOT AVAILABLE TAKE SHELTER IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
TORNADOES. YOU SHOULD LEAVE A MOBILE HOME AND GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A STURDY NEARBY BUILDING OR STORM SHELTER. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE
HOME YOU SHOULD MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE SHELTER WELL BEFORE ANY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

JP/SBH