River Flood Advisory 8, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

MAIN CONCERN IS STILL AROUND THE UNFOLDING SEVERE WEATHER AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
IS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BASED ON LATEST HI RES MODEL
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE BLUEGRASS
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WILL ALL THE
INGREDIENTS PRESENT FOR A DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FLOODING IS ALSO A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH ALL THE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FORTUNATELY...THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND HOPEFULLY LIMITING THE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL ALSO KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM WITH
GOOD SYNOPTIC LEVEL WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE FRONT BLOWS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE
30S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA LATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH COLDER START
TO SATURDAY.

MUCH QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE WILL ARRIVE MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...WITH
UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PEGGED TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
SETTLING BACK TO AROUND 30 OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL END UP BEING SNOW. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT...WILL YIELD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL. PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN...TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

KAS

MONDAY BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE COLD AIR TO
BEGIN THE DAY WILL PUSH AVAILABLE MOISTURE BROUGHT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES UPSLOPE WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED EARLY THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S.
THEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS
WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
TOO LIGHT TO ADVECT MUCH WARM AIR AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S. AS DAYTIME WINDS INCREASE ON TUE THE SRLY FLOW WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHING THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BNDRY WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE FRONTAL
BNDRY IS ORIENTATED IN A MORE NE/SW FASHION AND DOES NOT BEGIN TO
IMPACT ERN KY UNTIL THU. THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL
CYCLE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND THEN WRAP AROUND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THE PCPN TO BEGIN IN
EARNEST THU AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY THE LOWER
60S. THE ECMWF STALLS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE LAST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 23Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. GIVEN THE LIKELY STRONG
WINDS...HAVE PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
DOWNBURST WINDS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF
TONIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN THE COMPLEX WEATHER THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED
TO WAIT ON INCLUDING ANY FOG FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-
079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1017 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ088-115-117-118-021600-
LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY-HARLAN-
1017 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1100 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHEASTERN LESLIE...
   LETCHER...
   SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND
   HARLAN.

AT 1017 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLTS...OR 11
MILES EAST OF HARLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BENHAM AROUND
1025 AM EST...LYNCH AROUND 1030 AM EST...DAY AROUND 1035 AM
EST...EOLIA AROUND 1040 AM EST...AND ERMINE AROUND 1045 AM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1053 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL SEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS GUSTS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

JP/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ085>087-021800-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
1211 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 100
PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...
   SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND
   BELL.

AT 1204 PM EST...A STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF ONEIDA
IN TENNESSEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...FONDE AND WILKERSON BETWEEN 1230 AND 1245 PM...MIDDLESBORO
AROUND 1245 PM...AND PINEVILLE TOWARD 1 PM.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1234 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY...

THE PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK HAS INCREASED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY FROM HARLAN TO PIKEVILLE.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH STRONG...LONG
TRACKED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

NOW IS THE TIME DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER IF A TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED.

IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TORNADO WARNINGS WILL FOLLOW.

NOW IS THE TIME TO DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL TAKE SHELTER IF A
TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO
IS IN AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER OR BASEMENT. IF AN UNDERGOUND SHELTER OR
BASEMENT IS NOT AVAILABLE TAKE SHELTER IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
TORNADOES. YOU SHOULD LEAVE A MOBILE HOME AND GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A STURDY NEARBY BUILDING OR STORM SHELTER. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE
HOME YOU SHOULD MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE SHELTER WELL BEFORE ANY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

JP/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ087-088-118-021845-
LETCHER-BELL-HARLAN-
113 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 145 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   LETCHER...
   EASTERN BELL AND
   HARLAN.

AT 112 PM EST...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLMES MILL...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...EOLIA AROUND
120 PM EST...ERMINE AROUND 125 PM EST...AND WRIGHT AROUND 130 PM EST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
124 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
03/02/2012                   BELL               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 25E UNDER 6 INCHES OF WATER COMING INTO MIDDLESBORO.

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CALVIN             36.71N 83.61W
03/02/2012                   BELL               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO FEET OF FLOWING WATER OF HWY 1344.

&&

JCARICO