Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES
OVER NRN FL AND OVER NE FL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH SEA BREEZE.
ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

DON'T SEE MUCH TO MAINTAIN MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS BEYOND LATE
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...THURS THRU FRI...HIGH PRES RIDGE AT SFC AND ALOFT
TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH STATIONARY
OVER CTRL SC/CTRL GA N OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
THURS. WILL GO WITH GENERAL 30-40 POP FOR SCATTERED AFTN TSRA.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS (MID 90S)
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 COMPARED TO SOUTH OF 1-10 (LOW 90S).
SHOULD SEE DEWPTS MIX OUT TO UPR 60S/LWR 70S SUPPORTING AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105.

SIMILAR FORECAST FOR FRI...WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND A CHANCE FOR AFTN TSRA.

.LONG TERM...SAT THRU WED...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE KEY WEATHER TERM
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND
N OF FCST AREA...MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED
THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL CONVECTION
APPROACHES TERMINALS. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
CB AT GNV...JAX...VQQ AND CRG STARTING AT 21Z. IFR POSSIBLE AT GNV
AND VQQ TONIGHT...SO STARTED TO HEDGE THAT WAY IN THE 18Z PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES DESPITE NOCTURNAL SURGE TO NEAR 15 KTS
TONIGHT. PREVAILING SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  73  95 /  20  40  30  40
SSI  77  91  76  92 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  73  93  72  93 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  75  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  70  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  30
OCF  70  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ENYEDI/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
359 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-051000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
359 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE ST. MARYS RIVER...SUWANNEE RIVER AND
SANTA FE RIVER...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ALONG THE ST. MARYS
RIVER IN PORTIONS OF BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN...AND CHARLTON COUNTIES.

MODERATE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER IN
PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVERS IN PORTIONS OF
ALACHUA...BRADFORD...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE...AND UNION
COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL COMBINE WITH THE HUMIDITY TO
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

FLZ020-042000-
HAMILTON-
330 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
HAMILTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES EAST OF JASPER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS
AROUND JASPER THROUGH 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3060 8281 3047 8275 3045 8304 3059 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 235DEG 4KT 3053 8287

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

FLZ040-042030-
MARION-
358 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTH OF JUNIPER
SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS AROUND JUNIPER SPRINGS...WEIRSDALE...OCKLAWAHA AND MOSS BLUFF
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2919 8197 2919 8164 2904 8164 2904 8165
      2897 8166 2896 8166 2896 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 075DEG 10KT 2908 8171

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

FLZ022-023-042115-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-
439 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
BAKER AND EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLUSTEE...OR 11
MILES EAST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND WATERTOWN...LAKE
CITY...OLUSTEE AND SANDERSON THROUGH 515 PM EDT. OTHER STRONG STORMS
WERE ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF TAYLOR AND ANOTHER ONE JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE CITY MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3036 8253 3052 8243 3022 8220 3012 8253
      3014 8266 3029 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 242DEG 4KT 3024 8246

SHASHY