Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. SMALL
SCALE BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM POINT
TO A FLORIDA EMPHASIS FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION...SO WILL USE POPS
RANGING FROM 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS SE GA...TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS NE FL. PROFILES INDICATE TO SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS TNGT IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH HIGHS ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDICES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 500H RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING HOT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK INTO
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WITH THIS PATTERN WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNSET. IN GENERAL PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREA
TERMINALS THIS 18Z PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT
KVQQ/KGNV OVERNIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
REMAINING UNDER SCEC CRITERIA. A FEW STRONGER NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES
APPROACHING SCEC WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  74  94 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  79  90  77  92 /  30  30  20  20
JAX  74  95  73  93 /  30  30  20  20
SGJ  76  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  20
GNV  70  93  71  92 /  30  40  20  20
OCF  70  92  71  92 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-040930-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE ST. MARYS RIVER...SUWANNEE RIVER AND
SANTA FE RIVER...

...SCATTERED EVENING STORMS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ALONG THE ST. MARYS
RIVER IN PORTIONS OF BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN...AND CHARLTON COUNTIES.

MODERATE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER IN
PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVERS IN PORTIONS OF
ALACHUA...BRADFORD...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...SUWANNEE...AND UNION
COUNTIES.

SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW...
THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ132-133-040000-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRIDGEN...OR 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF AMBROSE...STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND AMBROSE...PRIDGEN AND BROXTON THROUGH
800 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3155 8279 3156 8306 3161 8306 3164 8302
      3166 8302 3167 8300 3176 8300 3180 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 264DEG 1KT 3166 8297

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ132-149-150-163-040045-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-COFFEE-WARE-
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WARE...EASTERN ATKINSON...EXTREME NORTHERN CLINCH AND SOUTHEASTERN
COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 845 PM
EDT...

AT 756 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER AXSON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
PEARSON...STATIONARY. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS
AROUND COGDELL...AXSON...MILLWOOD AND BICKLEY THROUGH 845 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3147 8267 3145 8260 3129 8251 3115 8274
      3120 8280 3127 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 227DEG 2KT 3128 8273

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ132-133-135-040045-
APPLING-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS...
NORTHWESTERN APPLING AND NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES
NORTH OF PLANT HATCH TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SNIPESVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND PLANT HATCH...HAZLEHURST...SNIPESVILLE...GRAHAM...PINE
GROVE...DENTON AND BAXLEY THROUGH 845 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3196 8241 3197 8239 3194 8233 3194 8228
      3193 8224 3176 8224 3169 8283 3179 8291
      3179 8287 3186 8278 3196 8252 3195 8250
      3198 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 000DEG 7KT 3195 8235 3182 8285

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             2 NNW PRIDGEN           31.72N 82.94W
07/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       COFFEE             GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS REPORT OF HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...ALONG WITH
            GUSTY WINDS AND 0.94 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 815 PM
            EDT.

0805 PM     HAIL             SE AXSON                31.27N 82.73W
07/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       ATKINSON           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...ACCOMPANIED BY
            GUSTY WINDS...AT A CONVENIENCE STORE NEAR AXSON. TIME OF
            EVENT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FLZ038-040110-
FLAGLER-
836 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
FLAGLER COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 910 PM
EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER FLAGLER COUNTY...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PIERSON...STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY THROUGH 910 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2926 8141 2926 8142 2930 8143 2939 8143
      2940 8145 2943 8126 2933 8123 2927 8122
      2926 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 269DEG 1KT 2929 8135

SHASHY

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