Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW HAS
ALLOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE IN BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ACROSS COASTAL NE FL AND ALL OF SE GA...WHILE AREAS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL WILL FIRE VERY SOON AS GOMEX SBRZ MOVES INLD AND RUNS
INTO OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE TOPPED OUT MAINLY
IN THE 80S. A FEW SLOW MOVING STRONG STORMS HAVE KICKED OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE BY
MIDNIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH PRECIP WATER
LEVELS AROUND 1.50 INCHES...COOL TEMPS ALOFT ADDING TO INSTABILITY
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRIGGERED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS BECOMING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED EVENING WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD/SCTD
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BY THURSDAY WILL
REALLY ONLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GNV-JAX AS
THEY MAY RE-DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI/SAT...SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 80S IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SUN/MON...A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT VQQ
AND GNV AS THE BEST COVERAGE SPREADS INLAND. GREATEST THREAT FOR
IFR IMPACTS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AT GNV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THUNDER. A BRIEF SHOWER THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT GNV AND
VQQ LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. MOST CONVECTION
TOMORROW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL BREAK OUT THIS PORTION IN THE CWF AND GO WITH A SCEC
HEADLINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AS AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS THEY VEER
FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  86  65  87 /  50  60  50  70
SSI  69  82  70  83 /  40  50  30  70
JAX  65  86  67  87 /  40  60  50  70
SGJ  67  83  68  84 /  40  50  50  70
GNV  64  87  65  87 /  60  60  60  60
OCF  65  87  66  87 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
320 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

......COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1
AM EDT TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
AND TRAINING STORM CELLS.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...
HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SOME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE HAZARD AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NWS INCLUDING
WIND DAMAGE...HAIL REPORTS AND FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH/MKT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

GAZ133>135-072130-
APPLING-BACON-JEFF DAVIS-
453 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN JEFF
DAVIS...CENTRAL APPLING AND NORTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND ALMA AND BAXLEY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3161 8219 3149 8258 3151 8260 3155 8260
      3156 8262 3157 8263 3167 8263 3182 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 245DEG 18KT 3161 8253

TRABERT