Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTION
HAVING A TOUGH TIME REDEVELOPING DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS BUT
STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
STRONG ACTIVITY HAVE REMOVED FROM THE ZFP/GRIDS BUT HAVE LEFT
MENTION IN THE HWO/WEB BRIEFING ON THE NWS JAX WEBSITE. PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.50 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MUCH OF IT
WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL. STORM MOTION STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
AND ERRATIC DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LOCAL SBRZ FRONTS AND OUTFLOWS.
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL SOAR INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG AS TEMPS
REACH INTO 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
CU FIELD RE-DEVELOPS IN SLOW HEATING OF THE AIRMASS ALONG WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TO MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  64  87  66 /  70  50  70  70
SSI  79  71  81  71 /  70  50  60  60
JAX  83  67  87  67 /  70  60  70  70
SGJ  82  69  84  69 /  60  50  60  60
GNV  87  65  88  65 /  70  70  60  60
OCF  89  66  88  67 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ALLEN/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1015 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
AND TRAINING STORM CELLS.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...
HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SOME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE HAZARD AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NWS INCLUDING
WIND DAMAGE...HAIL REPORTS AND FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N FOLKSTON            30.94N 82.01W
05/06/2012                   CHARLTON           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 301 NORTH OF FOLKSTON.
            TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

ZALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1221 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ038-071700-
FLAGLER-
1221 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 100
PM EDT...

AT 1221 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ESPANOLA...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BUNNELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ESPANOLA AND BUNNELL THROUGH 100 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8113 2941 8115 2931 8115 2926 8123
      2926 8128 2950 8146 2962 8141 2961 8129
      2943 8109 2942 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 323DEG 8KT 2949 8131

HESS