Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW HAS
ALLOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE IN BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ACROSS COASTAL NE FL AND ALL OF SE GA...WHILE AREAS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL WILL FIRE VERY SOON AS GOMEX SBRZ MOVES INLD AND RUNS
INTO OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE TOPPED OUT MAINLY
IN THE 80S. A FEW SLOW MOVING STRONG STORMS HAVE KICKED OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE BY
MIDNIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS.

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH PRECIP WATER
LEVELS AROUND 1.50 INCHES...COOL TEMPS ALOFT ADDING TO INSTABILITY
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRIGGERED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS BECOMING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED EVENING WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD/SCTD
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BY THURSDAY WILL
REALLY ONLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GNV-JAX AS
THEY MAY RE-DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI/SAT...SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 80S IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SUN/MON...A MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT VQQ
AND GNV AS THE BEST COVERAGE SPREADS INLAND. GREATEST THREAT FOR
IFR IMPACTS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AT GNV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINING TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THUNDER. A BRIEF SHOWER THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT GNV AND
VQQ LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. MOST CONVECTION
TOMORROW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL BREAK OUT THIS PORTION IN THE CWF AND GO WITH A SCEC
HEADLINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AS AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS THEY VEER
FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  86  65  87 /  50  60  50  70
SSI  69  82  70  83 /  40  50  30  70
JAX  65  86  67  87 /  40  60  50  70
SGJ  67  83  68  84 /  40  50  50  70
GNV  64  87  65  87 /  60  60  60  60
OCF  65  87  66  87 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHULER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
320 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

......COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1
AM EDT TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
AND TRAINING STORM CELLS.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...
HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
CREATE GUSTY WINDS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SOME STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE HAZARD AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NWS INCLUDING
WIND DAMAGE...HAIL REPORTS AND FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/JCH/MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ032-033-071915-
CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
245 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CLAY
AND WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF PICOLATA...OR 15 MILES
SOUTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PICOLATA...SWITZERLAND...GREEN COVE
SPRINGS...FRUIT COVE AND DOCTORS INLET THROUGH 315 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS 45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2982 8157 2982 8158 2984 8159 2984 8164
      2984 8179 3013 8180 3008 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 186DEG 4KT 2989 8167

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ024-071915-
NASSAU-
251 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NASSAU
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF CALLAHAN...NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
RATLIFF AND CALLAHAN THROUGH 315 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3051 8179 3045 8185 3046 8202 3054 8202
      3056 8200 3060 8202 3068 8200 3067 8180
      3050 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 002DEG 2KT 3058 8190

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ025-071945-
DUVAL-
316 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANDARIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
TALLYRAND...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE...ORTEGA...NORMANDY...MANDARIN...
JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AND BAYARD THROUGH 345
PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3025 8141 3025 8144 3011 8143 3010 8145
      3010 8154 3012 8154 3013 8160 3012 8168
      3019 8169 3019 8194 3021 8199 3042 8183
      3034 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 247DEG 3KT 3021 8180 3012 8159

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

GAZ132-072030-
COFFEE-
340 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST GREEN...OR 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOUGLAS...BROXTON...WEST
GREEN AND NICHOLLS THROUGH 430 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 3164 8296 3166 8263 3160 8263 3139 8263
      3145 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 259DEG 10KT 3158 8279

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

GAZ133-072030-
JEFF DAVIS-
352 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF SNIPESVILLE...OR 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF BROXTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SNIPESVILLE AND DENTON
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3180 8263 3167 8262 3167 8284 3172 8284
      3179 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 280DEG 6KT 3168 8278

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ025-072045-
DUVAL-
402 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
DUVAL COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ORTEGA TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF BALDWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MAXVILLE...
MANDARIN...JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE...ORTEGA...
NORMANDY...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...BALDWIN AND ARLINGTON THROUGH 445
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3013 8160 3014 8169 3017 8169 3019 8168
      3019 8169 3019 8197 3020 8204 3029 8204
      3036 8195 3034 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 217DEG 2KT 3024 8166 3027 8199

TRABERT