Lake Wind Advisory 30, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES TO TRUDGE ALONG THE INLAND
FL/GA BORDER. BANDS OF STRONGER STORMS ARE ROTATING ON THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN.
OVERALL WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER STORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OF NE FL UNTIL 6 PM...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO RETAIN
FLOOD WATCHES FOR ALL AREAS AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAILY RANGE
FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THE TRIP UP THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL TRAIL OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AS IT EXITS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO AROUND
90 EAST...AND LOW TO MID 90S FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TO BE FURTHER NORTH...WITH BEST ENERGY
WELL TO THE NORTH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 18Z
TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
AROUND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...BUT HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCRG/KJAX.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...REPLACING WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BENIGN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...COULD RESULT IN RISES TO ACTION STAGE FOR
SOME NORTHEAST FL RIVERS. AT THIS TIME...NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  83  68  90 /  90  80  70  30
SSI  75  81  73  89 /  80  70  70  40
JAX  71  83  69  90 /  70  70  70  40
SGJ  74  84  73  89 /  70  60  60  50
GNV  70  87  70  92 /  70  80  60  40
OCF  71  88  71  93 /  70  80  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/ENYEDI/SHULER/LETRO/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291100-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
230 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIND
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.

EASTERLY SWELLS AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRONGER RAINBANDS
WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
759 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-290045-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-MARION-PUTNAM-
759 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CLAY...SOUTHERN BRADFORD...EASTERN ALACHUA...WESTERN PUTNAM AND
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID
UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 800 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GAINESVILLE TO MCINTOSH TO 7 MILES WEST OF OCALA AIRPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND MICANOPY...MCINTOSH...FLEMINGTON...REDDICK...
GAINESVILLE...CROSS CREEK...OCALA AIRPORT...ROCHELLE...NEWNANS LAKE
AND LOWELL THROUGH 845 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2908 8242 2922 8243 2922 8241 2948 8241
      2948 8245 2971 8247 3007 8206 2977 8174
      2937 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 231DEG 29KT 2967 8233 2948 8216
          2918 8228

NELSON