Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...BERYL EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TD BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH
A RAINBAND EXITING LAND AREAS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE
BAND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH PERHAPS
A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD HAVE WEAK ROTATION. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING...WILL CANCEL THE
FLOOD WATCH. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOW TEMPS
TNGT. FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH WEAK LIFT AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING...AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTN...BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTN.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...THE
PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST TRACK CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD. BANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AT
KSSI...CLOSER TO THE EXITING BERYL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD VFR TONIGHT...WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS BERYL EXITS TO THE NORTH
THEN EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS UNDER
SCEC WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TS BERYL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY AND THE NORTH FORK OF THE
BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUR OTHER RIVER SITES.

THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 10.7 FEET
THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE FOR THE ST
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS 10.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0
FEET.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG IS FORECAST TO
CREST AT 12.0 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
ACTION STAGE FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG
IS 11.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  67  94 /  40  40  40  50
SSI  71  86  73  87 /  50  30  30  30
JAX  70  91  69  91 /  40  40  40  40
SGJ  71  88  72  87 /  40  40  40  40
GNV  69  92  69  92 /  40  30  30  30
OCF  71  92  70  92 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WOLF/ENYEDI/CHASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-302000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. THESE BANDS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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