Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...WET WEEKEND TO BOOST RAIN TOTALS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONTH...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE LIMITED CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE FACT THAT THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IS BEING LIMITED SOME BY
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS...WHICH HAS HINDERED HIGH TEMPS AND LIMITING
INSTABILITY...FROM EARLIER STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE OF THEM HAD TRIGGERED A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A FEW WARNINGS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE NOT REACH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH THESE STORMS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE LOCAL AND
NATIONAL WRF MODELS SHOWS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CROSSING THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING.
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWS ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OVERNIGHT...AS
THIS COMPLEX WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. SO HAVE LOWERED
TO CHANCE POPS AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND HIGH PWATS. THERE IS STILL SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A MILD MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO 72.
ADJUSTED EVENING POPS BASED ON AFTERNOON TRENDS.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MID LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ALSO
INCREASE STORM MOTION AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS WILL STILL BE HIGH THUS HAVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE ABOUT A NATCHEZ TRACE
AXIS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPS.
HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 84-91 AND LOWS 65-72.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ONLY
ISOLATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRYING WILL BE COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE RAINS OUT OF THE REGION
BY MONDAY EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S./17/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE COOLER/DRIER AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTER
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BUT EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY
WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

&&
.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. EXPECT HAZARDOUS/
TURBULENT AVIATION CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES...MAINLY AT
JAN/HKS/GTR/MEI/HBG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOUR...STORMS COULD INTENSIFY
QUICKLY AT ANY TAF SITE DURING THIS PERIOD AND BECOME SEVERE. MVFR
TO AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG. /40/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  88  69  85 /  70  77  72  18
MERIDIAN      70  88  69  86 /  99  75  82  23
VICKSBURG     71  88  68  86 /  61  74  60  17
HATTIESBURG   73  91  72  88 /  94  70  64  39
NATCHEZ       71  88  69  86 /  62  67  50  18
GREENVILLE    71  85  66  84 /  57  73  48  13
GREENWOOD     71  85  64  84 /  64  70  62  17

.&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/EC/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

MSZ043>046-048>066-072>074-191930-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IS BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. ALSO...A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AND RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE OUT AND
DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE TWENTY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATER SUNDAY. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS COULD BE
NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>042-047-191930-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-
226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATER SUNDAY. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS COULD BE
NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-191930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

MSZ049-182100-
RANKIN MS-
301 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS
WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF PEARL TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
PINEY WOODS AT 301 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3231 9016 3235 9011 3236 9011 3236 9010
      3238 9010 3251 8977 3236 8973 3214 8973
      3205 8996 3205 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 244DEG 16KT 3231 9004 3215 8995

19

MSZ065-182115-
COVINGTON MS-
331 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED
4 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLLINS AT 331 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3163 8962 3178 8958 3179 8957 3180 8940
      3162 8940 3157 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 201DEG 22KT 3168 8949

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE FLORENCE          32.17N 90.08W
08/18/2012                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTION OF HWY 469 UNDER WATER.

&&

CME

MSZ051-052-057-058-182220-
NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-JASPER MS-CLARKE MS-
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE AT 420 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER...LAUDERDALE AND
NEWTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3201 8902 3224 8903 3239 8926 3258 8899
      3258 8862 3251 8851 3220 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 238DEG 18KT 3242 8918 3237 8908
          3228 8894 3206 8893

19

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