Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE OF THEM HAD TRIGGERED A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHHALF...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS
A BUSY DAY ALONG AROUND THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH EXPECT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...WHILE
RUNNING INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE NATIONAL WRF
MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE FOCUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY WITH PLENTY OF PWATS AROUND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAINS HAVE COOLED TEMPS SOME IN THE
NORTHWEST DELTA SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AROUND 2 CATEGORIES TO AROUND
80 IN THE NORTHWEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...322 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...WET WEEKEND TO BOOST RAIN TOTALS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONTH...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING MCS CROSSING OUR NRN TIER THIS
MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST N OF THE CWFA. MORE
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACTIVE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PARKED ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEN FINALLY...A SHARP TROUGH FEATURING
30-40DM 500MB HEIGHT FALLS SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF STATES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EWD
TRAINING STORMS.

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
PASSING COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH LATER SUNDAY SHOULD TRIGGER REPEAT TSRA
ROUNDS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. MODELS SHOW A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THESE AREAS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE FRONT FROM CLARKSDALE TO KTUP TO SAG TO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY 82 AND I-20 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW TO BE SENDING
SHRA/TSRA EWD THROUGH 1.8-2.0" PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STALLED FRONT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP POPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL
ACROSS OUR CWFA WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AS
MID LEVEL FLOW AT 500MB REACHES 30-35KTS RIGHT ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR.
7-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 5C RANGE WITH MLCAPES AOB
1000J/KG AND SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM INTENSITIES SOMEWHAT. THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE ABOUT A NATCHEZ TRACE AXIS BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH SERN MS
EARLY ON MONDAY.

KEPT HIGH POPS FOR THIS MORNING IN NRN AREAS AND THEN FLIPPED BEST
POPS FOR THIS AFTN TO S/SW AREAS. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED BUT
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED IF MIDDAY RAIN DEVELOPMENT GETS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE U80S APPEAR MOST LIKELY SUNDAY AS WELL. POPS
WERE ALSO BUMPED UPWARD FOR SUNDAY AFTN PERIOD TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST AREAS./40/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS ON MONDAY AND PUSHING THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE COOLER/DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTER PLANES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BUT EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY
WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
HAZARDOUS/TURBULENT AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY AT ANY TAF SITE DURING
THIS PERIOD. MVFR TO AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT SPRAWLED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWFA. /40/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  71  88  68 /  72  57  90  64
MERIDIAN      89  70  88  68 /  70  53  89  80
VICKSBURG     88  71  89  65 /  71  61  90  52
HATTIESBURG   91  73  90  71 /  70  51  90  73
NATCHEZ       88  71  86  67 /  70  52  90  48
GREENVILLE    81  71  85  67 /  66  64  80  42
GREENWOOD     82  71  86  66 /  65  57  81  54
.&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/EC/15/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-191045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT TIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.
OTHERWISE... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE
LOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-191045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT TIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. A SEVERE SEVERE STORM OR TWO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATER SUNDAY. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT A TIME THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-181700-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-EAST CARROLL LA-
WEST CARROLL LA-
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORTLAND IN EASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...TO 6 MILES WEST OF START IN
NORTHWEST RICHLAND PARISH AT 1128 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST CARROLL...EAST
CARROLL...MOREHOUSE AND RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3254 9191 3274 9167 3327 9152 3338 9118
      3280 9126 3241 9172 3242 9197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 265DEG 11KT 3321 9144 3278 9155
          3246 9195

EEC

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-025-181730-
TENSAS LA-RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-EAST CARROLL LA-MADISON LA-
WEST CARROLL LA-
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM GASSOWAY TO 11
MILES WEST OF WINNSBORO AT NOON CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEST CARROLL...WESTERN MADISON...EAST CARROLL...FRANKLIN...
EASTERN RICHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3217 9194 3246 9171 3301 9134 3300 9117
      3294 9121 3290 9118 3291 9114 3298 9114
      3299 9111 3290 9106 3284 9115 3275 9117
      3274 9110 3246 9129 3200 9147 3196 9188
      3208 9193 3210 9188 3216 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 270DEG 18KT 3298 9124 3246 9159
          3202 9196

EEC

MSZ060-181755-
ADAMS MS-
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...STRONG STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF SIBLEY AT 1226 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN ADAMS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3130 9151 3135 9155 3141 9155 3137 9152
      3137 9147 3141 9148 3145 9152 3149 9151
      3153 9117 3134 9117 3137 9124 3131 9142
      3131 9146 3129 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 264DEG 9KT 3139 9144

EEC

LAZ009-016-023-025-181845-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-EAST CARROLL LA-MADISON LA-
1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES EAST OF LAKE
PROVIDENCE TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COOTER POINT AT 1244 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN MADISON...EAST CARROLL...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND TENSAS
PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3240 9155 3289 9108 3262 9115 3264 9101
      3249 9099 3249 9112 3234 9091 3237 9087
      3219 9100 3219 9117 3213 9105 3218 9105
      3216 9101 3176 9136 3176 9126 3175 9154
      3197 9160 3188 9174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 280DEG 23KT 3281 9105 3233 9130
          3210 9153 3181 9157

19

MSZ035-042-181845-
HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF YAZOO CITY AT 1247 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN YAZOO AND SOUTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3274 9006 3270 9010 3270 9013 3269 9014
      3266 9028 3261 9034 3261 9036 3258 9040
      3258 9044 3254 9050 3286 9073 3295 9052
      3301 9044 3301 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 330DEG 16KT 3285 9053

19

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