Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...WET WEEKEND TO BOOST RAIN TOTALS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONTH...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING MCS CROSSING OUR NRN TIER THIS
MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST N OF THE CWFA. MORE
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACTIVE AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PARKED ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEN FINALLY...A SHARP TROUGH FEATURING
30-40DM 500MB HEIGHT FALLS SWEEPS THROUGH THE GULF STATES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EWD
TRAINING STORMS.

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
PASSING COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH LATER SUNDAY SHOULD TRIGGER REPEAT TSRA
ROUNDS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. MODELS SHOW A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THESE AREAS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE FRONT FROM CLARKSDALE TO KTUP TO SAG TO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY 82 AND I-20 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW TO BE SENDING
SHRA/TSRA EWD THROUGH 1.8-2.0" PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STALLED FRONT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP POPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL
ACROSS OUR CWFA WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AS
MID LEVEL FLOW AT 500MB REACHES 30-35KTS RIGHT ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR.
7-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 5C RANGE WITH MLCAPES AOB
1000J/KG AND SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM INTENSITIES SOMEWHAT. THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE ABOUT A NATCHEZ TRACE AXIS BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH SERN MS
EARLY ON MONDAY.

KEPT HIGH POPS FOR THIS MORNING IN NRN AREAS AND THEN FLIPPED BEST
POPS FOR THIS AFTN TO S/SW AREAS. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY FOLLOWED BUT
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED IF MIDDAY RAIN DEVELOPMENT GETS WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE U80S APPEAR MOST LIKELY SUNDAY AS WELL. POPS
WERE ALSO BUMPED UPWARD FOR SUNDAY AFTN PERIOD TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST AREAS./40/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS ON MONDAY AND PUSHING THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE COOLER/DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTER PLANES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BUT EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY
WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ERY THIS MORNING WILL RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z WITH BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 4K FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR NRN
PORTIONS DEVELOP AGAIN 16Z THROUGH 01Z ESPECIALLY NRN AND CENTRAL
CWFA. GENERAL SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSRA WILL BE WLY AT 5-10KTS
WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS BECOMING NLY BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. MVFR TO AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT
SPRAWLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWFA./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  71  88  68 /  72  57  90  64
MERIDIAN      89  70  88  68 /  62  53  89  80
VICKSBURG     88  71  89  65 /  72  61  90  52
HATTIESBURG   91  73  90  71 /  59  51  90  73
NATCHEZ       88  71  86  67 /  66  52  90  48
GREENVILLE    85  71  85  67 /  61  64  80  42
GREENWOOD     86  71  86  66 /  62  57  81  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

15/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-191045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EDGE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT TIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.
OTHERWISE... THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE
LOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-191045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT TIME. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. A SEVERE SEVERE STORM OR TWO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LASTING UP TO AN HOUR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATER SUNDAY. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME GROUND REPEATEDLY THEN
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...LOW SPOTS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER
ISSUES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS AT A TIME THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

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MSZ038-039-181240-
WINSTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WINSTON COUNTY...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WINSTON
COUNTY AT 708 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN NOXUBEE AND EASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3324 8867 3296 8871 3297 8904 3326 8897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 279DEG 17KT 3310 8889

DL

MSZ018-181440-
BOLIVAR MS-
912 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
912 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...STRONG STORM MOVING INTO WESTERN BOLIVAR COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF ROSEDALE AT 911 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3365 9078 3370 9105 3371 9107 3371 9113
      3379 9113 3378 9105 3377 9103 3378 9099
      3380 9104 3384 9108 3387 9108 3389 9105
      3390 9073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 273DEG 15KT 3380 9102

EEC

MSZ018-019-181510-
SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-
941 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CLEVELAND AT 941 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR AND CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3382 9051 3360 9054 3366 9095 3384 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 277DEG 18KT 3374 9083

EEC