Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
DAILY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THE REGION REMAINS A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
PATTERN THANKS TO MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING GENERALLY E/SE
AS THE MEAN PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. EACH PERIOD/DAY WILL OFFER SEPARATE
CHALLENGES ON FORECAST CONVECTIVE SPECIFICS DUE TO THE MESOSCALE
NATURE OF WHAT WILL TRULY DRIVE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. TODAY IS A
GREAT EXAMPLE...THE UPPER WAVE WAS WEAKER TODAY...BUT THE PRESENCE
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDED IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...LOOK FOR THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS TO BE ACROSS THE
I-59 CORRIDOR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AL SLIPS MORE
WESTWARD AND HELPS DEVELOPMENT GET GOING ACROSS OUR SE CWA.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUIET AS FAVORABLE OVER OUR SE (COMPARED TO THE
NE)...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS EXIST FOR SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS. THE
MAIN RISK WILL BE QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND DMG WINDS. POPS
AND WX GRIDS WERE ADJ FROM GUID TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONAL ADJ
UPWARD MAY BE NEED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED. MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AFTER THE SE
ACTIVITY WANES. LATE IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...FOCUS LOOKS TO SHIFT TO
OUR NW WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM COMPLEX MAY GET GOING. THERE
IS SOME LOW CHANCE THIS WILL EVOLVE AND DIVE INTO THE NW CWA...AND
THUS COVERED THAT AREA WITH SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS.

ON MON...QUESTION MARKS EXIST ON JUST WHERE ANY BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM
MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW WILL THAT INTERACT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ANY REAL SOLID CONSENSUS
ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN...BUT MOST MODELS OFFER A DECENT SHOT AT SEEING
STORMS AT SOME POINT MON INTO MON EVE.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LULL PERIOD MON NGT/TUE...BEFORE MORE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AS THE MAIN SFC COOL FRONT NEARS AND MORE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH GETS INTO THE REGION. AGAIN...DECENT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EXIST TUE/TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OVERALL...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MON-TUE WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME WITH HAIL/DMG WINDS THE MAIN RISK. THE OVERALL RISK WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON PREV DAYS CONVECTION AND WHATEVER IS ONGOING IN THE
REGION. MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINE WHAT
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AND RIGHT NOW...THERE IS NO GUID THAT OFFERS
ANYTHING CLOSE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON SVR STORM SPECIFICS. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT JAN/MEI/HBG THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AGAIN BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR MEI/HBG. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  89  68  86 /  18  29  37  48
MERIDIAN      64  90  65  88 /  13  33  44  50
VICKSBURG     66  90  66  85 /  18  29  35  45
HATTIESBURG   66  89  68  88 /  25  28  24  53
NATCHEZ       67  88  67  86 /  16  20  19  53
GREENVILLE    68  88  68  84 /  22  38  49  33
GREENWOOD     68  89  68  84 /  16  37  54  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MSZ025>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-072100-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES THAT
A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS...BECOMING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040-041-
047-053-059>061-072100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15/03

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