Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG WITH HOT EARLY MAY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER 90S BEING REACHED.
GOING FORECAST IS SHOWING THAT AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJ WERE NEEDED
TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS ALSO MODIFIED
AS MORE SUNSHINE EXISTS THIS AM...HOWEVER THE TREND IN SKY COVER
WILL TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...THERE CONTINUES TO THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME TODAY BUT THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE MODELS IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE THAN ISO TYPE ACTIVITY. SAYING THAT...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST ENTERING THE NE CWA THAT EMANATED FROM MORNING
CONVECTION OVER TN/N AL. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD AID IN A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE NE/E AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
IS ALONG THE MS/AL LINE AND THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK ASCENT TODAY. DUE TO THIS...NUDGED
POPS UP ACROSS THE EAST A TAD TO 30%. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BETTER TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY
EDGE INTO OUR OUR PARISHES LATER. CURRENTLY WE ARE NOT MENTIONING
ANY ACTIVITY THERE. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING TO OUR WEST AND OVERALL LESS DEEP
MOISTURE.

ONCE AGAIN...THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS ALOFT.
MODIFIED JAN/BMX SOUNDINGS FOR 87-89 DEGREE HIGHS WITH UPPER 60
DEWPTS RESULTS IN ML/SB CAPE OF 3000-3700 J/KG AND LI'S OF -10 TO
-13C. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO HIGH AND RANGE FROM 1000-1300 J/KG
RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...THE CAPPED LAYER IS LESS THAN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A WEAK CAP LOOKS TO LINGER.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OR THE
MAIN AREA WHERE IT COULD DEVELOP. MUCH OF THIS IS BASED ON THE LACK
OF HOW THINGS EVOLVED YESTERDAY. ALSO...HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT
HELPING TODAY AS THEY ALL OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE ALL OF
THEM SHOW DEVELOP (AND ROBUST DEVELOP) EACH OFFER DIFFERING TIMING
AND LOCATION.

THE BEST COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RISK OF SOME STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THAT. IF THE FULL POTENTIAL OF
THE ATMS CAN BE REALIZED...THE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
(QUARTER-GOLF BALL) ALONG WITH DMG WINDS. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FITS
FOR NOW AND WE WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES OR SHOWS
LACK OF EVOLUTION. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG WERE IFR CIG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT JAN/MEI/HBG/GTR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY
BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR MEI/HBG. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  68  90  67 /   9  10  25  50
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  63 /  27  27  29  58
VICKSBURG     90  67  89  64 /   7  13  25  41
HATTIESBURG   91  65  91  68 /  27  27  17  26
NATCHEZ       89  67  89  66 /  11  11  16  24
GREENVILLE    90  69  89  67 /   5  25  34  48
GREENWOOD     91  68  90  67 /   6  18  33  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-073-074-070900-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-JONES-LAMAR-FORREST-
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ITS POSSIBLE DURING THESE
TIMES THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POTENTIALLY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITS...BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072-070900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
MARION-
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19/EC

MSZ032-061710-
CHOCTAW MS-
1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY AT 1150 AM CDT...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8941 3343 8941 3344 8926 3330 8923
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 075DEG 12KT 3335 8932

CME