Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG WITH HOT EARLY MAY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER 90S BEING REACHED.
GOING FORECAST IS SHOWING THAT AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJ WERE NEEDED
TO HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS ALSO MODIFIED
AS MORE SUNSHINE EXISTS THIS AM...HOWEVER THE TREND IN SKY COVER
WILL TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...THERE CONTINUES TO THE
EXPECTATION OF SOME TODAY BUT THE LACK OF ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE MODELS IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE THAN ISO TYPE ACTIVITY. SAYING THAT...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST ENTERING THE NE CWA THAT EMANATED FROM MORNING
CONVECTION OVER TN/N AL. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD AID IN A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE NE/E AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
IS ALONG THE MS/AL LINE AND THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK ASCENT TODAY. DUE TO THIS...NUDGED
POPS UP ACROSS THE EAST A TAD TO 30%. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BETTER TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY
EDGE INTO OUR OUR PARISHES LATER. CURRENTLY WE ARE NOT MENTIONING
ANY ACTIVITY THERE. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING TO OUR WEST AND OVERALL LESS DEEP
MOISTURE.

ONCE AGAIN...THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS ALOFT.
MODIFIED JAN/BMX SOUNDINGS FOR 87-89 DEGREE HIGHS WITH UPPER 60
DEWPTS RESULTS IN ML/SB CAPE OF 3000-3700 J/KG AND LI'S OF -10 TO
-13C. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO HIGH AND RANGE FROM 1000-1300 J/KG
RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...THE CAPPED LAYER IS LESS THAN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A WEAK CAP LOOKS TO LINGER.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OR THE
MAIN AREA WHERE IT COULD DEVELOP. MUCH OF THIS IS BASED ON THE LACK
OF HOW THINGS EVOLVED YESTERDAY. ALSO...HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT
HELPING TODAY AS THEY ALL OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE ALL OF
THEM SHOW DEVELOP (AND ROBUST DEVELOP) EACH OFFER DIFFERING TIMING
AND LOCATION.

THE BEST COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RISK OF SOME STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THAT. IF THE FULL POTENTIAL OF
THE ATMS CAN BE REALIZED...THE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
(QUARTER-GOLF BALL) ALONG WITH DMG WINDS. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FITS
FOR NOW AND WE WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES OR SHOWS
LACK OF EVOLUTION. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG WERE IFR CIG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT JAN/MEI/HBG/GTR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY
BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR MEI/HBG. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  68  90  67 /   9  10  25  50
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  63 /  27  27  29  58
VICKSBURG     90  67  89  64 /   7  13  25  41
HATTIESBURG   91  65  91  68 /  27  27  17  26
NATCHEZ       89  67  89  66 /  11  11  16  24
GREENVILLE    90  69  89  67 /   5  25  34  48
GREENWOOD     91  68  90  67 /   6  18  33  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MSZ025>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-065-066-073-074-071930-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-JONES-LAMAR-FORREST-
224 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ITS POSSIBLE DURING THESE
TIMES THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POTENTIALLY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITS...BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040-041-
047-053-054-059>064-072-071930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-MARION-
224 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

MSZ026-061845-
GRENADA MS-
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRENADA AT 115 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL GRENADA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3389 8976 3387 8976 3387 8968 3387 8967
      3373 8967 3371 8989 3390 8993 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 191DEG 8KT 3382 8978

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
122 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             1 WNW VAIDEN            33.34N 89.77W
05/06/2012  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT THE TRUCK STOP ALONG I-55

&&

DL

MSZ028-061925-
MONTGOMERY MS-
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF SWEATMAN AT 155 PM
CDT. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3351 8975 3366 8970 3366 8951 3350 8953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 292DEG 2KT 3358 8957

DHB

MSZ032-037-061930-
ATTALA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
159 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
159 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER WEIR AT 159 PM CDT...MOVING WEST
AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND NORTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3317 8942 3334 8943 3336 8927 3320 8925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 079DEG 3KT 3326 8933

DHB

MSZ036-062015-
HOLMES MS-
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LEXINGTON AT 245 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9015 3317 9027 3325 9001 3309 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 023DEG 3KT 3313 9005

BK

MSZ039-046-062035-
NOXUBEE MS-KEMPER MS-
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GHOLSON AT 305 PM CDT.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL KEMPER AND SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3292 8845 3286 8866 3296 8879 3301 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 321DEG 1KT 3294 8864

BK