Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEAKNESS IN THE H500 UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS AIDING IN A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL AID IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
PERIOD DUE TO A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AS
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE LARGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCES FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST SATURDAY NIGHT SO
INCLUDED PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION. /DC/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
OVERALL...LONG TERM SHOULD BE QUIETER WEATHER WISE WITH A
WARMER/DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPING.

BY SUN...A LEFT OVER UPPER SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PREV DAYS DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL FOLLOW THE 20-40% POPS
OFFERED BY GUID. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WHICH
IS THE LOWER 90S.

FOR EARLY WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE MID/LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...LOOK FOR THE STOUT MID/UPPER HIGH TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND
SHIFT POSITION. WHILE IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BUILD STRONGLY DURING THE
WEEK...THE HIGH WILL CENTER ITSELF MORE OVER OUR REGION AND THUS
PROVIDE MORE SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS NOTED BY WARMING ALOFT IN THE
MODELS AND SHOULD REALLY HAMPER CONVECTION. WHILE THERE WILL STILL
REMAIN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS WILL BE
THERE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW END
WORDING TO COVER ANY ISO TYPE ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. AS FOR
TEMPS...LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER READINGS OVERALL.
AT THIS TIME...NO DATA IS SUPPORTING ANY REALLY HOT CONDITIONS...BUT
THE AREA SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. IF THE HIGH CAN
BUILD OR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...THEN
WE MAY GET WARMER...WE STILL HAVE MANY DAYS TO WATCH THIS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
JAN/HBG AND MEI THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES AND ONCE AGAIN THIS COULD
BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME STORMS COULD AGAIN BE RATHER
VIGOROUS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS AND NEARBY TURBULENCE. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  89  75  88 /  32  70  43  51
MERIDIAN      74  88  73  87 /  46  75  34  53
VICKSBURG     76  91  75  89 /  30  67  52  46
HATTIESBURG   75  88  74  88 /  44  79  44  60
NATCHEZ       75  88  75  87 /  27  71  39  52
GREENVILLE    77  94  76  90 /  31  48  40  18
GREENWOOD     77  92  75  90 /  33  57  33  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/CME/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
227 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS FROM 40
TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. THE SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK WILL
BE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N JACKSON             32.33N 90.21W
07/19/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ALONG OVERSTREET AVENUE

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
07/19/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING AT MILL STREET AND MONUMENT STREET

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW FLOWOOD            32.36N 90.14W
07/19/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT RIDGEWOOD ROAD AND SHEFFIELD
            DRIVE AND IN THE 5000 BLOCK OF OLD CANTON ROAD

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JACKSON             32.27N 90.22W
07/19/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING AT TERRY ROAD AND GRANDVIEW CIRCLE

&&

DL

MSZ029-192155-
WEBSTER MS-
424 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSON AT 425 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3356 8906 3356 8909 3353 8909 3353 8921
      3361 8924 3367 8912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 331DEG 7KT 3359 8914

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE CANTON            32.55N 89.99W
07/19/2012                   MADISON            MS   PUBLIC

            FLASH FLOODING ALONG MS HIGHWAY 43 SOUTHEAST OF CANTON

&&

DL

MSZ032-033-192205-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
434 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF STURGIS AT 435 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8897 3332 8919 3348 8913 3347 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 006DEG 6KT 3340 8907

BK

LAZ009-016-192205-
EAST CARROLL LA-MADISON LA-
435 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER SONDHEIMER AT 436 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHERN EAST CARROLL PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3267 9113 3264 9115 3260 9115 3259 9113
      3259 9109 3254 9106 3253 9106 3254 9110
      3249 9112 3242 9103 3238 9129 3263 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 349DEG 6KT 3256 9120

BK

MSZ061-192205-
FRANKLIN MS-
437 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 437 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 9108 3148 9093 3135 9074 3134 9075
      3135 9098 3133 9098 3134 9102 3133 9103
      3133 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 315DEG 8KT 3136 9093

BK