Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Jackson, MS

644 
WWUS54 KJAN 050909
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

MSC125-050920-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-120405T0945Z/
SHARKEY MS-
409 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SHARKEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3320 9033 3310 9035 3309 9038 3311 9042
      3305 9043 3305 9039 3301 9037 3301 9038
      3301 9044 3297 9045 3295 9049 3295 9066
      3309 9066 3310 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 247DEG 29KT 3306 9055

$$

MSC053-050945-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-120405T0945Z/
HUMPHREYS MS-
409 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY...

AT 410 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MIDNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SILVER CITY BY 415 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 9033 3310 9035 3309 9038 3311 9042
      3305 9043 3305 9039 3301 9037 3301 9038
      3301 9044 3297 9045 3295 9049 3295 9066
      3309 9066 3310 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 247DEG 29KT 3306 9055

$$

272 
WWUS54 KJAN 050938
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
438 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

MSC053-050949-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-120405T0945Z/
HUMPHREYS MS-
438 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3320 9033 3310 9035 3309 9038 3311 9042
      3305 9043 3305 9039 3301 9037 3301 9038
      3301 9044 3297 9045 3295 9049 3295 9066
      3309 9066 3310 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 247DEG 29KT 3315 9029

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

.UPDATE...EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY AIR HAD FOLLOWED THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MCS INTO MUCH OF OUR CWFA. PWATS HAD DROPPED TO
JUST UNDER 1 INCH AT 00Z WITH VIRTUALLY NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA TO FOCUS ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA. HOWEVER LL
MOISTURE RETURN HAD ALSO DEVELOPED UP THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TO OUR
W AND MID LEVEL 7-500MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT NEARLY
8C ALONG THE MS RIVER. A FIRST BATCH OF ELEVATED SHRA OVER NRN AND
CENTRAL LA WAS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP SINCE 22Z AND HAVE BUMPED ALL
POPS DOWNWARD THRU MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK MOVES INTO NRN AR
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WRN TN THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS SOME
TSRA EVENTUALLY FORMING/DEVELOPING INTO SWRN/ SRN MS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY STAYING S OF I-10. MEANWHILE...HRR/SREF
RUNS SHOW A SEPARATE AND MORE POTENT BAND OF TSRA FORMING ALONG A
KPBF-KMLU-KLFT AXIS ABOUT 09Z-12Z AND EXPANDING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE
WRN HALF OF CWFA THROUGH 15-18Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
BUT PACK A BIT OF PUNCH WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 50-60MPH BEING LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR.

HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON OVERNIGHT POPS FOR OUR ERN PORTIONS AND
THEN BOOSTED THEM IN THE MS PORTIONS THURSDAY MORNING AS A DISTINCT
VORT TROUGH SWINGS THE FINAL ROUND OF STORMS THROUGH THE CWFA. THESE
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE AS THEY BECOME SURFACE BASED IN ERN
MS AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS./40/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONLY CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED. EXPECT SOME BROKEN
CLOUD LAYERS 4-6K FEET DEVELOPING FROM W TO E THROUGH 06Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP 06Z-10Z TONIGHT...MAINLY SW OF HWY 49 AND SHOULD
BECOME AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH
16Z THU MORNING. CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOSTLY VFR AGAIN W OF I-55
18Z-20Z WHILE MVFR HOLDS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE E. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU ACROSS THE FAR WRN AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...THEN THE REST OF THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK./40/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS ELUDED TO
EARLIER THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...NOW WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HELPED TO STABILIZE OUR
AIRMASS FOR TODAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE CIRRUS
DEBRIS FROM SAID AREA REMAINS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA BUT IS
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
RECOVERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING
INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  WHILE LITTLE MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE THIS FRONT AND UPPER LOW
TO SPEED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION UP A BIT... BRINGING IT CLOSER TO
THE ARKLAMISS REGION OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IF WE INDEED SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...IT'LL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOBES OF
ASCENT ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.  HIGH-RES AND EVEN SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS.  ONCE AGAIN THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THIS PATTERN/REGIME WE'RE CURRENTLY DEALING
WITH.  BECAUSE OF THIS...I'M FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THEIR ASSESSMENT.

WITH THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN IN THE PROCESS OF RECOVERING AND BETTER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH BETTER FORCING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST...CONTINUED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ADEQUATE WIND
SHEAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...AND PUSH EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.  SOME MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX AND RACE THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE...IN THE
HWO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH CONVECTION
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE SW OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR...AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AS A RESULT OF YESTERDAY AND
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THOUGH AS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW THINGS
WILL EXACTLY UNFOLD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. /19/

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING
A RETURN TO SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE. HAVE
FOLLOWED MEX MOS GUIDANCE AND LIMITED SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO
MONDAY/MON NIGHT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW RETROGRESSION
OF THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS WOULD INDUCE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF IT
VERIFIES. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK COOL ENOUGH TO BRING A
LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  80  54  76 /  40  50   6   4
MERIDIAN      62  82  52  77 /  34  52  11   4
VICKSBURG     57  80  54  77 /  53  33   4   4
HATTIESBURG   64  83  57  81 /  36  47   4   3
NATCHEZ       61  80  55  77 /  53  31   4   3
GREENVILLE    57  79  54  72 /  52  23   2   3
GREENWOOD     59  80  52  73 /  39  39   5   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
155 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT. THE PRIMARY RISKS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND A TORNADO
OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORMS SHOULD END BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

MSZ034-050745-
WASHINGTON MS-
217 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF WAYSIDE AT 217 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3327 9076 3327 9073 3323 9074 3320 9068
      3320 9108 3322 9109 3328 9104 3328 9108
      3324 9110 3330 9114 3335 9114 3337 9112
      3338 9115 3337 9112 3339 9110 3342 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 264DEG 24KT 3329 9110

DHB

LAZ007-008-015-050805-
RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
217 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BASTROP AT
218 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WEST CARROLL...SOUTHERN MOREHOUSE AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3279 9206 3286 9142 3262 9141 3260 9194
      3265 9192 3266 9194 3268 9197 3270 9198
      3268 9204 3270 9206 3274 9206 3276 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 265DEG 33KT 3269 9203

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     HAIL             WAYSIDE                 33.27N 91.03W
04/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY WASHINGTON EM

&&

EC

LAZ007>009-015-050830-
RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
258 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOODWILL AT
259 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN WEST CARROLL...WESTERN EAST CARROLL...CENTRAL
MOREHOUSE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3286 9130 3264 9126 3259 9175 3276 9179
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 276DEG 35KT 3269 9165

JA

LAZ015-023-050840-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
309 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUCKNER AT
309 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3230 9202 3239 9201 3245 9196 3245 9164
      3222 9166 3225 9200 3227 9200 3227 9203
      3229 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0809Z 273DEG 25KT 3235 9202

JA

MSZ034-041-050905-
WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-
334 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER ANGUILLA AT 334 AM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN SHARKEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3312 9069 3310 9068 3310 9066 3292 9066
      3291 9067 3292 9069 3291 9070 3288 9085
      3305 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 254DEG 24KT 3299 9077

JA