Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE GO THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW HAS PICKED UP
SPEED AND THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE OZARKS. THE BEST
CONVECTIVE REGIME EXISTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER AND INCLUDES
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE AIRMASS
IN THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TT VALUES IN THE MID
50S...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ~50 KTS...AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AND A FEW OTHER
DISCRETE CELLS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT APPROACHED THE ARKLAMISS AND THEY HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL.

EXPECT THE BETTER CONVECTIVE REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE TO SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...COINCIDING WITH DIURNAL HEATING WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY OVER ERN MS. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BROKEN TSTM
LINE SEGMENTS AS WE GO INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. WHILE A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...VEERED AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK AND HAIL/WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS. EXPECT
THE RISK FOR STORMS TO END QUICKLY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS
AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.

AS WE GO FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
VERY NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DRAGS A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
STATE ON SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK/DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS BEGIN TO
CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THERE SOLUTIONS AS WE GET INTO MID-LATE
WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BECOME ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ON TRACK./15/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL WILL POSE A
BIG AVIATION HAZARD TODAY IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT STORMS TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  53  73  50 /  41   4   0   0
MERIDIAN      81  53  74  48 /  50   9   0   0
VICKSBURG     79  52  73  48 /  33   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   83  54  78  52 /  40   7   0   0
NATCHEZ       78  54  74  51 /  21   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    75  53  70  48 /  42   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     78  52  71  47 /  51   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/15/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

MSZ019-025>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-
061000-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
452 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES
TO GREATER INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE FOR QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...AND
THERE WILL BE A LESSER RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-040-041-047-053-
059>061-061000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-
452 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
PRIMARY RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...AND THERE WILL BE A LESSER RISK FOR
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

MSZ019-025-035-036-051220-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-
652 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES WEST OF QUITO TO
8 MILES SOUTH OF MIDNIGHT AT 652 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN HOLMES...HUMPHREYS...SOUTHERN LEFLORE AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3346 9010 3346 9014 3342 9014 3341 9018
      3333 9018 3326 8992 3317 8993 3295 9018
      3302 9034 3300 9045 3293 9045 3293 9066
      3299 9066 3314 9049 3354 9043 3355 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1152Z 267DEG 32KT 3345 9033 3315 9038
          3294 9059

JA

MSZ035-036-042-051235-
HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
705 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THORNTON AT 705
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHERN HOLMES AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3319 8991 3297 8988 3296 8990 3296 8989
      3293 8990 3292 8992 3293 9048 3306 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1205Z 268DEG 39KT 3299 9038

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
730 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     HAIL             BENTON                  32.83N 90.26W
04/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0727 AM     HAIL             BENTONIA                32.65N 90.37W
04/05/2012  E0.75 INCH       YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
800 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HAIL             4 N GLUCKSTADT          32.57N 90.10W
04/05/2012  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE HAIL FALLING ON MDOT TRAFFIC CAM AT NISSAN PARKWAY

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     HAIL             CANTON                  32.61N 90.03W
04/05/2012  M1.75 INCH       MADISON            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 MILE NORTH OF NISSAN BLVD

&&

AWEBER

MSZ043-048>050-051340-
SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
808 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM GOSHEN SPRINGS TO 3
MILES NORTH OF RAYMOND AT 808 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN HINDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON...NORTHERN RANKIN AND WEST
CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3235 8955 3212 9026 3231 9060 3253 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 304DEG 28KT 3248 8991 3229 9042

JC