Flash Flood Warning 132, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC PER
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH
THIS MORNING.  HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE
CONTINUED TO PELT MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING...ALONG WITH
DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
HIS NORTHWEST TREK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING...BUT CONTINUING TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND AN OVER-ABUNDANCE OF RAIN IN THE PROCESS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS NOT IN THIS WATCH IS THE
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION.  WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...ON TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  ALSO...GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF ISAAC.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED
TREES ALONG WITH SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TRAVEL ISSUES AS SOME TREES
AND LIMBS COULD FALL ONTO POWERLINES IN ACROSS AREA ROADS.

ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON TODAY...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BE
THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SPINNING UP IN ISAAC OUTER
RAINBANDS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IT'S WAY NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
RESULTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW AND MID LEVELS TEMPS TODAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF INCREASED CONVECTION WITHIN ISAAC'S
RAINBANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER
THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES
TODAY.  THIS RISK CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO GREENVILLE LINE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AND EVENTUALLY A REMNANT LOW AS HE CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DECENT
RAIN CHANCES AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN
ISAAC'S WAKE. /19/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BY DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. RIDGES
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES NOSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN WITH SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.  MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC
WILL STILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. LOWER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE GFS DROPS THIS FRONT IN OUR CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES IT TO THE GULF COAST BY NOON WEDNESDAY...
GENERATING PCPN OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
DROP THE FRONT INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND STALLS IT ACROSS OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PCPN BACK ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A 1020MB HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS ISAAC WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITHIN THESE RAIN
BANDS...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.  AT A MINIMUM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  74  88  74 / 100  56  57  30
MERIDIAN      86  73  89  73 / 100  54  57  24
VICKSBURG     84  77  89  75 / 100  65  53  32
HATTIESBURG   87  75  92  74 / 100  41  66  21
NATCHEZ       84  75  89  75 / 100  52  57  25
GREENVILLE    85  75  88  74 / 100  74  59  48
GREENWOOD     85  75  87  75 / 100  64  62  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>046-048>066-
     072>074.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ040-047>049-053>056-059>066-
     072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ044-045-
     050>052-057-058.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-
     019-025-048-049-054-055-062-063.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034>036-
     041>043.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ037.

LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

19/22/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
651 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074-
311200-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
651 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST JUST WEST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...EXPECT WINDS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
TO AFFECT MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RESULT DOWNED TREES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND
LIMBS COULD FALL ONTO POWER LINES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ISAAC PASSES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THAT AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR. FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AS BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST IN AT LEAST THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH A GREAT DEAL THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-034>037-040>046-050>052-057-058-311200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
651 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST TODAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. A WIND ADVISORY IN IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...AND
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TODAY. A FEW DEAD OR WEAK TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN THROUGH THE COURSE
OF TODAY...WITH SOME FALLING ONTO POWER LINES RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS AS HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES
OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST IN AT LEAST THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING A GREAT
DEAL BY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

MSZ025>033-038-039-311200-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
651 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES SLOWLY MORNING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST TODAY...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION MORE FREQUENTLY TODAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AS WELL AS IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
08/30/2012                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF THREE TREES DOWN IN BRANDON.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     TROPICAL STORM   HAZLEHURST              31.86N 90.39W
08/30/2012                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF 55 TREES HAVE FALLEN DOWN ACROSS ROADS WITH 6
            OF THE TREES ON POWERLINES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     TROPICAL STORM   TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
08/30/2012                   MADISON            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
            PARISH AND SOME HAVE FALLEN ON ROADS AND POWERLINES.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
927 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     TROPICAL STORM   JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
08/30/2012                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE FELL ON A POWERLINE ON IDAHO STREET.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     TROPICAL STORM   PORT GIBSON             31.96N 90.98W
08/30/2012                   CLAIBORNE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN SCATTERED ACROSS PORT GIBSON AND
            THE COUNTY. SOME HAVE FALLEN ON ROADS AND LINES CAUSING
            POWER OUTAGES. 1 STRUCTURE WAS DAMAGED.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
937 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NEWLIGHT                32.10N 91.43W
08/30/2012                   TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
            THE PARISH.

&&

DCOX