Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE AND NHC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSAC
OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MOVING NORTHWEST. AREA RADAR
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SPIRAL BANDS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SPIRAL BANDS HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS FLOOD REPORTS AND DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN RADAR IMAGERY
FILTERING IN AROUND THE SPIRAL BANDS...WHICH WILL AID IN TORNADIC
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
THINNING OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY AND AID IN SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR FROM ISSAC. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON HIS NORTHWEST TREK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS NOT IN THIS
WATCH IS THE THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION.  WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...ON
TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE REGION THE PAST 24
HOURS...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DELTA INTO AREAS ACROSS THE MS RIVER UNTIL 1 AM.

ALSO GUSTY WINDS AND ISSAC PUSHING NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM 4 TO 7 PM.

ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SPINNING UP IN
ISAAC OUTER RAINBANDS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK
IT'S WAY NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW AND MID
LEVELS TEMPS TODAY.  THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF INCREASED CONVECTION
WITHIN ISAAC'S RAINBANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR TORNADOES TODAY.  THIS RISK CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE GREATEST OVER
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO GREENVILLE LINE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EVENTUALLY BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW AS HE CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM INSOLATION AND LEFT OVER SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN ISAAC'S WAKE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE REMNANT LOW OF ISSAC PULLS INTO MISSOURI.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PWATS AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AIRMASS
CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND
MAV GUIDANCE./17/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BY DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. RIDGES
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES NOSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN WITH SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.  MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC
WILL STILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. LOWER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE GFS DROPS THIS FRONT IN OUR CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES IT TO THE GULF COAST BY NOON WEDNESDAY...
GENERATING PCPN OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
DROP THE FRONT INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND STALLS IT ACROSS OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PCPN BACK ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A 1020MB HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA. /22/

&&

AVIATION...
ISAAC IS LOCATED ABOUT 25MI W OF MONROE LA CURRENTLY. THE HEAVIEST
OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY NOW...HOWEVER STRAY RAIN BANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH MS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ARKLAMISS IS
STILL SEEING HIGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN BANDS WILL
MOVE OVER ALL SITES AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS
FROM ISAAC WILL BEGIN THINNING OUT AND BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW.
/10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  91  74  91 /  59  55  29  36
MERIDIAN      74  90  72  92 /  57  55  26  37
VICKSBURG     77  92  75  91 /  69  51  30  34
HATTIESBURG   74  91  75  94 /  53  56  19  33
NATCHEZ       75  91  75  90 /  56  45  22  42
GREENVILLE    75  90  74  91 /  86  61  41  33
GREENWOOD     75  91  75  91 /  71  62  42  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

.

17/10/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

MSZ025>027-036-037-043>046-048>066-072>074-312000-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-HOLMES-ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
252 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES
WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO GUST
TO 35 MPH UNTIL 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE AS BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040>042-
047-312000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
252 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES
WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. EXPECT WINDS OF 25 TO GUST
TO 35 MPH UNTIL 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAAC WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES
OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MSZ028>033-038-039-312000-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
252 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES
WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NE MERIDIAN           32.39N 88.70W
08/30/2012                   LAUDERDALE         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE LARGE TREES DOWNED NEAR 23RD AVENUE AND PARKWAY
            BLVD

&&

DL

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