Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND NHC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL STORM ISSAC
SOUTH OF MONROE LA. AREA RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
SPIRAL BANDS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE SPIRAL BANDS HAVE CAUSED
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD REPORTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN RADAR IMAGERY FILTERING
IN AROUND THE SPIRAL BANDS...WHICH WILL AID IN TORNADIC POTENTIAL. A GOOD
MARINE LAYER WAS NOTED ON THE COAST WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1500. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS INSTABILITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
AND AID IN SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR FROM
ISSAC. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF 55. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WILL ALLOW THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE EAST OF 55 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LET
THE TROPICAL WARNING WEST OF 55 EXPIRE AT 4 PM. THIS WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WIND ADVISORY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST DELTA DOWN THROUGH
I-55 FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM.

ON A SIDE NOTE HERE IS SOME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS./17

MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA 15.02
SUMRALL              10.39
BROOKLYN 1S          10.18
HATTIESBURG 5SW      10.09
PURVIS 2N            9.68
QUITMAN 2E           8.58
DRY CREEK WATER PARK 7.88
BAY SPRINGS          6.98
LAUREL               6.96
HATTIESBURG CHAIN AP 6.87
MEADVILLE            6.51
SOUTH HATTIESBURG    6.47
PRENTISS             6.24
MEADVILLE 5SE        6.19

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...455 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC PER
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH
THIS MORNING.  HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE
CONTINUED TO PELT MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING...ALONG WITH
DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
HIS NORTHWEST TREK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING...BUT CONTINUING TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND AN OVER-ABUNDANCE OF RAIN IN THE PROCESS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS NOT IN THIS WATCH IS THE
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION.  WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...ON TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  ALSO...GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF ISAAC.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED
TREES ALONG WITH SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TRAVEL ISSUES AS SOME TREES
AND LIMBS COULD FALL ONTO POWERLINES IN ACROSS AREA ROADS.

ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON TODAY...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BE
THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SPINNING UP IN ISAAC OUTER
RAINBANDS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IT'S WAY NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
RESULTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW AND MID LEVELS TEMPS TODAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF INCREASED CONVECTION WITHIN ISAAC'S
RAINBANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER
THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES
TODAY.  THIS RISK CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO GREENVILLE LINE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AND EVENTUALLY A REMNANT LOW AS HE CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DECENT
RAIN CHANCES AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN
ISAAC'S WAKE. /19/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BY DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. RIDGES
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES NOSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS ABOVE TWO INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN WITH SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.  MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC
WILL STILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. LOWER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE GFS DROPS THIS FRONT IN OUR CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES IT TO THE GULF COAST BY NOON WEDNESDAY...
GENERATING PCPN OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
DROP THE FRONT INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND STALLS IT ACROSS OUR AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PCPN BACK ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A 1020MB HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA. /22/

&&

AVIATION...
THE RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE BANDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITHIN
THESE RAIN BANDS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 40-45KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND UP TO
35-40KTS IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS.  AT A MINIMUM...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. /19/10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  74  88  74 / 100  56  57  30
MERIDIAN      86  73  89  73 / 100  54  57  24
VICKSBURG     84  77  89  75 / 100  65  53  32
HATTIESBURG   87  75  92  74 / 100  41  66  21
NATCHEZ       84  75  89  75 / 100  52  57  25
GREENVILLE    85  75  88  74 / 100  74  59  48
GREENWOOD     85  75  87  75 / 100  64  62  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ040-047>049-053>056-059>066-
     072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ044-045-
     050>052-057-058.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-
     019-025-048-049-054-055-062-063.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034>036-
     041>043.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ037.

LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

17/19/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>056-059>066-072>074-
311630-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT WINDS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
TO AFFECT MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT DOWNED TREES
AND AT LEAST ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND LIMBS COULD FALL
ONTO POWER LINES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
CENTER OF ISAAC PASSES OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR. FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AS BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN
LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST IN AT LEAST THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH A GREAT DEAL THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-034>037-040>046-050>052-057-058-311630-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. A WIND ADVISORY IN IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...AND
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TODAY. A FEW DEAD OR WEAK TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN THROUGH THE COURSE
OF TODAY...WITH SOME FALLING ONTO POWER LINES RESULTING IN POWER
OUTAGES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS AS HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL RATES
OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO
BROOKHAVEN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM OUR REGION INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST IN AT LEAST THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING A GREAT
DEAL BY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ025>033-038-039-311630-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAAC WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION MORE FREQUENTLY TODAY. THIS
HEAVY RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH
TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
GREATEST OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO BROOKHAVEN
LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1117 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRENTISS                31.60N 89.87W
08/30/2012  M5.60 INCH       JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED AT EOC OFFICE.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
08/30/2012                   LAUDERDALE         MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF 414 HIGHWAY 11 AND
            HIGHWAY 80. ALSO ON HIGHWAY 19 SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF SE
            MIDDLE SCHOOL AND INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 39 AND NORTH
            HILLS STREET.

&&

DCOX

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