Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A
HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THESE WILL DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ATMOSPHERE HAS LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW. SO STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS.

JUL 6 RECORDS CVG  98 IN 1874
              CMH  98 IN 1881
              DAY 100 IN 1911

FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
OR ABOVE DURING PEAK HEATING. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES.  THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES TO
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ON PRECIPITATION.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER.  CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS BRINGS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY HOWEVER STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOW 90S.  MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.  A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KLUK/KCVG THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH A LINGERING VCTS INTO EARLY EVENING. TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS MUCH LESS UNSTABLE SO THINK ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO RECOVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AND LAKE ERIE IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...BUT AS THIS
DROPS SOUTH...TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING
BACK INTO CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME PATCHY MVFR BR. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE AT KLUK
AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY GET ANY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CU SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-060915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GROW IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
555 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

KYZ094-095-052230-
OWEN KY-GRANT KY-
555 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN
OWEN COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OWEN AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES...INCLUDING KEEFER...
CORINTH...NEW COLUMBUS...NATLEE AND BEECHWOOD.

LAT...LON 3856 8482 3861 8464 3849 8456 3842 8463
      3836 8471 3835 8474 3835 8475

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ026-034-035-044-052315-
AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-MERCER OH-
624 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MERCER...
NORTHERN LOGAN...HARDIN AND AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 621 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD TO STATE ROUTE 195 AT
STATE ROUTE 235 TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...KENTON...
CRIDERSVILLE...WAYNESFIELD...BELLE CENTER...ROCKFORD...WAPAKONETA...
LAKEVIEW AND RUSSELLS POINT.

ALSO...BLANCHARD...WALTON...GRANT...JUMBO...ROUNDHEAD...SILVER
CREEK...MENTZER AND PFEIFFER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4071 8349 4071 8344 4068 8341 4052 8341
      4050 8346 4050 8352 4047 8352 4040 8370
      4058 8455 4073 8470 4073 8446 4069 8445
      4069 8423 4066 8422 4065 8389 4075 8388
      4083 8368 4082 8350

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ082-088-052315-
PIKE OH-SCIOTO OH-
637 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO AND WESTERN
PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BEAR
CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...LUCASVILLE.

ALSO...BEAR CREEK...OTWAY...MCDERMOTT AND LOMBARDSVILLE ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3880 8290 3876 8325 3912 8328 3914 8309

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ034-052315-
MERCER OH-
643 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 640 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROCKFORD.

ALSO...TAMA AND CHATTANOOGA ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4058 8455 4056 8481 4073 8481 4073 8480
      4073 8460

ASL