Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A
HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THESE WILL DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ATMOSPHERE HAS LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW. SO STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS.

JUL 6 RECORDS CVG  98 IN 1874
              CMH  98 IN 1881
              DAY 100 IN 1911

FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
OR ABOVE DURING PEAK HEATING. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES.  THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES TO
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ON PRECIPITATION.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER.  CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS BRINGS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY HOWEVER STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOW 90S.  MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.  A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KLUK/KCVG THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH A LINGERING VCTS INTO EARLY EVENING. TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS MUCH LESS UNSTABLE SO THINK ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO RECOVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AND LAKE ERIE IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...BUT AS THIS
DROPS SOUTH...TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING
BACK INTO CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME PATCHY MVFR BR. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE AT KLUK
AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY GET ANY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CU SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-060915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GROW IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

KYZ094>096-052130-
OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-GRANT KY-
455 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...
SOUTHWESTERN PENDLETON AND EXTREME EASTERN OWEN COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMP
NORTHWARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN
OWEN...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHWESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING CAMP NORTHWARD...MARCUS...KEEFER...CORDOVA...CORINTH AND
NEW COLUMBUS.

LAT...LON 3864 8467 3868 8445 3856 8441 3853 8443
      3853 8447 3852 8447 3851 8449 3851 8452
      3849 8456 3844 8461 3842 8463

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ088-052145-
SCIOTO OH-
509 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SCIOTO COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 505 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MCDERMOTT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WESTERN PORTSMOUTH.

ALSO...WEST PORTSMOUTH...TURKEY CREEK LAKE AND FRIENDSHIP ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3868 8326 3896 8320 3895 8288 3873 8296
      3872 8303 3870 8305 3868 8309

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ082-088-052145-
PIKE OH-SCIOTO OH-
518 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SCIOTO AND CENTRAL PIKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PIKETON...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
PIKE AND NORTHERN SCIOTO COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAKEFIELD.

LAT...LON 3892 8289 3894 8316 3911 8308 3910 8288

ASL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
555 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

KYZ094-095-052230-
OWEN KY-GRANT KY-
555 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN
OWEN COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OWEN AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES...INCLUDING KEEFER...
CORINTH...NEW COLUMBUS...NATLEE AND BEECHWOOD.

LAT...LON 3856 8482 3861 8464 3849 8456 3842 8463
      3836 8471 3835 8474 3835 8475

ASL